Week Five

A WIN OF SORTS … In last week’s Fearless Forecast I noted that our hometown Aggies, coming off a decent win over Univ. of San Diego, might be catching Hawaii at just the right moment, given that the Warriors had been badly thumped by a weak UNLV team the week before. I boldly went where no other forecasters dared to go when I said “Take the Aggies by 4.” This prompted a Jason to tell me he had lost his shirt on my advice and he was wondering “what in the world” I was thinking. I was wondering the same thing myself after Hawaii raced to a 49-0 halftime lead behind quarterback Bryant Moniz’s 424 yards and seven touchdown passes in two quarters of action. Unfortunately, due to an editing error, my original prediction to “Take the Aggies by 4 in the second half” was changed to simply “Take the Aggies by 4.” The rest of it ended up on the cutting room floor. The Aggies did indeed win the second half, 14-7. They simply ran out of time as Hawaii coach Greg McMackin scrambled to stem the tide by putting into the game an assortment of cheerleaders, season ticket holders and friends of University of Hawaii President M.R.C. Greenwood, herself a former Aggie. But Jason, you really shouldn’t be betting your shirt on games like this. Remember, all advice contained herein is for “entertainment purposes” only.

EVEN MORE POSTCARDS FROM HAWAII … Matthew at earthlink.net fired me an email shortly before kickoff, basically agreeing with my assessment that the Aggies were ripe for pulling a major upset in Honolulu. Wrote Matthew: “I just wanted to send you a note before the game started to say that if the Aggies get a couple of bounces their way, they stand a chance of upsetting the University of Hawaii Warriors at Aloha Stadium.” That’s it, a couple of bounces. That’s all they needed to overcome that 49-0 deficit. Added Matthew: “The game is off the board at virtually all of the sports websites. The best I could find was Hawaii favored by 30 points by vegasinsider.com.” Shoulda bet your shirt, Matthew.

OVERTIME SCORING EXPLAINED … Last week my friend Curt – on the second or third try – came up with the correct answer to the trivia question: “What’s the maximum number of points a college football team can win by in overtime?” The correct answer is 14. You get the ball first, score a touchdown and a two-point conversion. Then you either intercept or pick up a fumble and return it for a touchdown when the opposition has its turn with the ball. There is no PAT after the second touchdown. A 14-point win. Actually, I can make a case for just about any margin of victory between 1 and 14 occurring in overtime, except for 11 points. Margins of 1, 2 and 3 are obvious and frequently occur. A margin of four has probably never occurred because consecutive safeties by the same team aren’t possible in the overtime format. The game would end after the first safety. However, one team could score 7 points on its possession, then have that trimmed to four when the other team kicks a field goal. Not likely, but possible. I mean, only Sac State would decide to kick a field to keep the final score respectable when trailing by 7 points in overtime. Other possible overtime margins include 5 (field goal followed by a safety), 6 (touchdown), 7 (touchdown and extra point), 8 (touchdown and two-point conversion or touchdown and safety), 9 (field goal followed by defensive touchdown), 10 (touchdown and two-point conversion, followed by safety), 12 (touchdown followed by defensive touchdown), 13 (touchdown and extra point, followed by defensive touchdown) and 14 (touchdown and two-point conversion, followed by defensive touchdown.) Still can’t solve 11.

SPEAKING OF SNACK STATE … After Sacramento State’s crazy Hornets upset Oregon State in Week 1, I ranked them ninth in the nation. Then they lost by three touchdowns at Southern Utah and by more than that at Weber State, which dropped them into the “Snack State” category because opponents were feasting on them. So what do the Hornets do? They go out and knock off traditional I-AA power Montana for the first time in school history. And they do it convincingly. Which Hornet team will show up in Bozeman for a Big Sky showdown with the talented Bobcats? Stay tuned.

O FOR OREGON … You read it here first. Actually, you read it here several weeks ago. Oregon State, once futile and then mighty, is slip-sliding away. The Beavers are looking straight in the face of the first 0-12 campaign in school history. As the fight song says “I’m a Beaver born and a Beaver bred, and when I die I’ll be a Beaver dead.” After losses to Sac State and UCLA, these Beavers are dead.

CRUMMY GAME OF THE CENTURY … New Mexico State over New Mexico. Things have gotten so bad for the Lobos that they fired coach Mike Locksley after last weekend’s 48-45 loss to I-AA Sam Houston State. Not supposed to happen. Lest you think they fired the third-year coach over the result of one game, Locksley’s final mark with the Lobos, four games into this third season, was 2-26. Those other 25 losses and some off-field embarrassments were major contributors as well. Only 16,000-plus fans showed up for the latest loss, the worst crowd in Albuquerque in the last 19 years. In the big-money world of major college football, that’s the worst offense of all.

HOLD THE PRESSES … Toledo leads Syracuse 27-23 late in the fourth quarter. Syracuse scores a touchdown and kicks the extra point to go ahead 30-27 with 2:07 to play. Toledo ties it with a last-second field goal, but Syracuse prevails in overtime, 33-30. But wait, after Syracuse’s late-game, go-ahead touchdown, the extra point had to be reviewed by the replay booth, which eventually upheld the call on the field that the kick was good. The next day Big East Conference coordinator of officiating Terry McAulay issued the following statement: “After studying videos of the Syracuse extra point attempt at 2:07 of the fourth quarter, we have concluded that the ruling on the field that the kick passed between the uprights was incorrect, and that the replay official made an error in failing to reverse that ruling. In reviewing the video, we have determined that the angle from behind the kicking team shows conclusively that the ball passes outside the right upright.” An independent video review by the Above-Picture Blogger also reveals that the kick very clearly did not pass through the goal posts. Not even a close call. So, Toledo wins, 30-29, right? Wrong. Whatever the score is when the game is declared over remains as the final score, no matter how many errors were made in reaching that score. Toledo is demanding victory. Syracuse could be gracious and say “here, it’s yours, we don’t want to win that way,” but the NCAA probably wouldn’t reverse the result anyway. Besides, you can’t say for sure that had the correct call been made and Syracuse’s lead reduced to just 29-27, that Toledo would have marched down the field to that exact spot and successfully kicked a field goal. Needing only a field goal to win, instead of to tie, might have created a different play-calling scenario. Or, even if the kick had been set up the same, Syracuse’s defensive strategy might have been different. At 30-27, you’d have to leave a couple of guys back to watch for a fake. At 29-27, nobody is going to fake a field goal and you rush all 11, perhaps creating a different result. The solution to all this is to have competent people in the replay booth who will take the time to make sure they got it right. Short of that, do away with replay altogether or go back to playing the game the way God intended. I don’t know how this one could have been reviewed and not reversed. Somehow the whole nation could see what one replay official couldn’t. Toledo will have to put an asterisk next to this one in the school record book with the notation “We was robbed.”

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Wisconsin, 5) Boise State, 6) Oregon, 7) Stanford, 8) Oklahoma State, 9) Florida, 10) Nebraska, 11) Virginia Tech, 12) South Carolina, 13) Clemson, 14) Baylor, 15) Texas A&M, 16) Georgia Tech, 17) TCU, 18) Arkansas, 19) Michigan, 20) Illinois, 21) South Florida, 22) Arizona State, 23) Michigan State, 24) West Virginia, 25) Florida State.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) State of New Mexico (1-7), 119) Oregon State (0-3), 118) UNLV (1-3), 117) Arizona (1-3).

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over UCLA … the road will get considerably tougher for the Cardinal soon enough, so for now they’ll feast on what’s available. UCLA did survive the Futility Bowl against Oregon State, but didn’t bring away much to build on, save for a win.

CLEMSON over VIRGINIA TECH … the best game of the game, bar none.

COLORADO over WASHINGTON STATE … the Buffs picks up their first Pac-12 victory.

USC over ARIZONA … behind Nick Foles, Arizona moved the ball admirably in a lopsided loss to Oregon. If the Wildcats can figure out some defense, USC is ripe for the plucking. Then again, Arizona has been outscored so badly in three straight losses that No. 4 seems almost inevitable.

ARIZONA STATE over OREGON STATE … Dennis Erickson picks up an easy victory over a team he used to coach. Then again, is there a team out there that Dennis Erickson didn’t used to coach?

UTAH over WASHINGTON … my would the Utes like to play USC again.

NOTRE DAME over PURDUE … the Irish are one of the most talented teams in the entire country, but consistently shoot themselves in the foot, turning sure routs into barn-burners.

ALABAMA over FLORIDA … anyone who thinks the SEC isn’t the toughest league in the country, week in and week out, doesn’t understand college football.

WISCONSIN over NEBRASKA … welcome to the Big 10 you wayward Huskers.

GEORGIA TECH over NORTH CAROLINA STATE … watch out for the Ramblin’ Wreck, which is running up and down the field with the greatest of ease.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Mississippi State over Georgia … the Bulldogs win this one, guaranteed. (Upset record: 0-4).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Penn State over Indiana … Joe Pa simply doesn’t have the horses this year, but he doesn’t need any horses to bowl over lowly Indiana. (Rout record: 4-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Baylor over Kansas State … Robert Griffin III is the real deal. 13 touchdown passes so far and just 12 incompletions. He may just lead the Baylor Bears to the promised land after years of futility. (Don’t bet record: 1-3).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s guaranteed victors are Oklahoma (over Ball State), Tennessee (over Buffalo), Michigan (over Minnesota), LSU (over Kentucky) and Boise State (over Nevada). (FEP record: 20-0).

EMBARRASSING GAME OF THE WEEK: Miami (Fla.) over Bethune-Cookman. Remember when the Aggies played Bethune-Cookman in the Division II playoffs years ago? They’ll call this one at halftime.

OTHER GAMES: BYU over Utah State, Texas A&M over Arkansas, Texas Tech over Kansas, Cincinnati over Miami (Ohio), South Carolina over Auburn, TCU over SMU, West Virginia over Bowling Green, Louisville over Marshall, Maryland over Towson, Ohio State over Michigan State, Virginia over Idaho, Texas over Iowa State, Tulsa over North Texas, Southern Mississippi over Rice, Louisiana Tech over Hawaii, San Jose State over Colorado State, and Fresno State over Mississippi.

Last week: 34-9, season: 168-35, percentage: .828. 

Week Three

SAY IT AIN’T SO … for years the world has marveled at the meteoric rise of once-humble Boise State, from Division II through Division I-AA and finally to regular top 10 finishes among the nation’s major colleges. And now we hear the Broncos have been hit with three years probation for “major violations” and “lack of institutional control” in football and four other sports. Boise will lose nine football scholarships over a three-year period, and in the height of silliness, will be allowed to have only nine contact practices – instead of 12 – each spring for the next three years. It will also be required to paint its world-famous blue turf a deep shade of red for extreme embarrassment.

GAMBLERS BEWARE … USC entered last week’s Pac-12 showdown with Utah as an 8 1/2 –point favorite. On the final play of the game, with USC leading 17-14, Utah lined up for a 41-yard field goal to tie the game and send this tense affair into overtime. The kick was blocked, however, by USC left tackle Matt Kalil and the ball bounced directly into the hands of Trojan cornerback Torin Harris, who ran untouched to the end zone for a nine-point USC win. Or even 10 (or 11) if they had decided to attempt the meaningless conversion, which they didn’t. Jubilation not just for USC fans, but for all those who put money on the Trojans to cover that 8 ½-point spread. But wait. After huddling for far too long at midfield, game officials decided to disallow the touchdown because seemingly half the USC bench, plus assorted coaches, were running down the field in celebration as Harris was chugging toward the goal line. Under a new rule for 2011, because flags were thrown before Harris reached the end zone, the touchdown was disallowed and the final score reverted to 17-14. Jubilation for Utah bettors, if not for Utah fans. But wait. Two hours after the game the Pac-12 decided the officials had misinterpreted the new rule and put the touchdown back on the board. Final score: USC 23, Utah 14. Jubilation once again for USC bettors. At least those who hadn’t already shredded their tickets or tossed them on the floor and stomped out of whatever Nevada sportsbook they frequent. Presumably, once the Pac-12 got into the act, there was a mad scramble for all those discarded tickets on the floor of every casino in Nevada. According to the Pac-12, “All unsportsmanlike conduct fouls by substitutes are enforced as dead ball fouls. Since the game was over, the penalty could not be enforced and the referee stated it was declined by rule.” As my eight-year-old would say, “Whatever.” Some Utah bettors were able to cash “winning” tickets before the touchdown was restored, and those USC bettors lucky enough to hold onto their tickets until after the Pac-12 ruling were able to cash in as well. And doesn’t it just kill you when the Las Vegas casinos take a beating?

SHATTERING A GRIDIRON MYTH … for years and years and years, we’ve been told by coaches and commentators alike that “time of possession” is one of the key elements of a football game. The team who “possesses” the ball longer is almost certain to win. Unless, of course, that team is Oregon, with its score-from-anywhere, three-points-a-minute offense. In crushing the once-great and always-proud NevadaWolfpack last Saturday afternoon in Autzen Stadium, the Ducks held the ball for a mere 21 minutes compared to 38 for the Wolfpack. It was 48-7 with the second half barely underway before Oregon head coach Chip-on-his-shoulder Kelly called off the Ducks. Oregon managed to score 69 points in those 21 minutes. Nevada just 20 in its 38 minutes. So much for time of possession.

MORE ON TIME OF POSSESSION … another favorite of commentators is that “the defense has been on the field too long and is really gassed.” Okay, but hasn’t the other guy’s offense been on the field just as long as the opposition’s defense? Shouldn’t the offense be “gassed” as well, especially if it runs down the field as fast as Oregon does?

GREAT READING … not to be missed in the Sept. 12 Sports Illustrated is S.L. Price’s in-depth look at the long coaching history of TCU’s Gary Patterson, formerly an assistant at UC Davis. Turns out Price, a Sacramento Bee sportswriter at the time, and Patterson, were roommates in Davis.

NOTRE SHAME … how can it be that a school with the name “Notre Dame” could lose on a Hail Mary with two seconds left? The Blessed Mother must have had Saturday off. Another sure sign The End is near.

PRE-GAME SNAFU … first, someone poisons Auburn’s famous Toomer’s Oaks, and now we learn that the Auburn War Eagle, a bald eagle by the name of Spirit, crashed into a luxury box at Jordan-Hare Stadium during his regular pre-game ritual flight. Seems the 14-year-old mascot got nervous about Auburn’s date with powerful Mississippi State and simply lost his bearings before returning to his handler on the field. After an overnight stay at the Southeastern Raptor Center, Spirit has been declared fit for action. If it happens again, he may seek a medical hardship year from the NCAA. It’s anyone’s guess why he cracked into the glass of the luxury box, but if you’ve seen some of those Auburn super boosters put away the food, he may just have been looking for something to eat.

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) Oklahoma, 2) Alabama, 3) Boise State, 4) LSU, 5) Wisconsin, 6) Stanford, 7) Oklahoma State, 8) South Carolina, 9) Florida State, 10) Texas A&M, 11) Auburn, 12) Baylor, 13) Arkansas, 14) Florida, 15) Virginia Tech, 16) South Florida, 17) West Virginia, 18) Texas Christian, 19) Arizona State, 20) Oregon, 21) Mississippi State, 22) USC, 23) Michigan, 24) Texas, 25) Washington State.

BOTTOM FEEDERS … 120) Catholic Schools (0-4), 119) Oregon State 0-2, 118) New Mexico (0-2), 117) Indiana (0-2), 116) State of Nevada (0-3).

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over ARIZONA … this may end up being the best game of the weekend. With a late Saturday night start, it’ll easily be the last game of the weekend. A tough early test for the Cardinal, with two of the nation’s best quarterbacks displaying their wares. Fortunately, one of them is wearing Stanford red. Stanford by 13.

OKLAHOMA over FLORIDA STATE … Barry Switzer outsmarts Bobby Bowden. No, wait. I have my generations mixed up. For sure, Gordon MacRae will lead the Sooners to victory. Oklahoma by 7.

OKLAHOMA STATE over TULSA … T. Boone Pickens U. is about to give the Sooners a run for their money in the race for state supremacy. Cowboys by 35.

NEBRASKA over WASHINGTON … for sure, the mascot beginning with the letters “H-U-S-K” will win this game. The Huskies find out in a hurry just how long the road back to respectability really is. Huskers by 17.

WISCONSIN over NORTHERN ILLINOIS … the Badgers are beginning to emerge as the class of the Big 10. Everyone else is an also-ran. Wisconsin by 21.

USC over SYRACUSE … it won’t be pretty, but once again the men of Troy will score just enough points to emerge victorious. USC by 8. But don’t bet on it.

TEXAS over UCLA … the Horns finally showed some promise in an impressive come-from-behind win over BYU last week, while the Bruins struggled mightily with lowly San Jose State. Plus, there’s a little payback involved in this game. Texas by 12.

ARIZONA STATE over ILLINOIS … Dennis Erickson keeps telling anyone who will listen that this Sun Devil team is for real. It better be, or Dennis will be added to those miserable unemployment statistics at the end of the year. ASU by 10.

AUBURN over CLEMSON … hey, they’re the national champions until someone proves otherwise. Tigers by 4.

UTAH over BRIGHAM YOUNG … all kinds of bragging rights on the line in this one. BYU’s offense hasn’t exactly exploded into an orgy of touchdowns as everyone figured it would, and Utah’s defense is more than up for the challenge. Utah by 1.

BOISE STATE over TOLEDO … not the easiest of road games. For a no-name, no-respect opponent, Toledo can be terrifying. Just ask Ohio State. Broncos by 14.

OHIO STATE over MIAMI (Fla.) … two storied programs mired in controversy and penalties. They may ban both teams before this one is over. Buckeyes by 6.

KANSAS STATE over KENT STATE … a sure win for K. State. Guaranteed. Wildcats by 22.

COLORADO over COLORADO STATE … no contest in what used to be a Rocky Mountain shootout. Buffs by 20.

ARKANSAS over TROY … the Real Men of Troy live in Southern California. Hogs by 30.

OREGON STATE ORANGE over OREGON STATE BLACK … the Beavers finally find a game they can win. Unfortunately, it’s an intrasquad game during their bye week.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Washington State over San Diego State … one more win and Paul Wulff can sign a new multi-year contract. They haven’t been this excited in the Palouse since that record wheat harvest in 1952. Wazzu by 4. (Upset record: 0-2)

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Cal over Presbyterian … the Blue Hose roughed up powerful North Greenville last week after losing a squeaker to Wofford the week before, so this may not be the Bakery League cream puff the Bears envisioned. Nevertheless, that record-setting 127-0 Cal win over St. Mary’s in 1920 may be in jeopardy. First Bear fan to yell “Take off those Blue Hose” will be ejected from the stadium. And no messing with the spelling of “Hose,” all you clever Cal students. By the way, the Blue Hose student body consists of just 1,200 hardy souls, only 600 of whom are men. A high percentage of those 600, apparently, play football. Or maybe some of the women play too. The Golden Bears could literally score on every play is they so desired. Jeff Tedford’s pre-game speech will consist of showing his players how to fall down gracefully after a 10-yard gain, even if there is no defender in sight. After all, once the score reaches 80 or 90 to nothing, it ceases to impress the pollsters. It just indicates how terrible the opposition is. Cal by 128. (Rout record: 2-0)

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Michigan State over Notre Dame … not only are the Irish giving away games in the final seconds, now the Catholic press is all over head coach Brian Kelly for his foul-mouthed sideline tirades. The poor guy can’t win. Literally. Spartans by 3. (Don’t bet record: 0-2).

FIVE EASY PICKS … these games are so lopsided it’s embarrassing. The only way these five don’t win is if the opposition refuses to come out of the locker room for the coin toss. This week’s sure winners are Oregon (over Missouri State), Michigan (over Eastern Michigan), Texas A&M (over Idaho), Alabama (over North Texas) and Georgia (over Coastal Carolina). (FEP record: 10-0).

WORST GAME OF THE WEEK: Boston College over Duke … look out, someone may actually score a touchdown in this one. BC by 4.

UC DAVIS AGGIES over SAN DIEGO … in racing to a 2-0 record, the Toreros have outscored the opposition 72-50. In stumbling to an 0-2 record, the Aggies have been outscored by the opposition 86-28. No contest, right? Right. Beating Azusa Pacific and Western New Mexico is hardly the equivalent of going up against Arizona State and Montana State. The Toreros haven’t been the same since Jim Harbaugh headed north. Take the Ags by 28.

OTHER GAMES: Penn State over Temple, Purdue over Southeast Missouri, Mississippi over Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech over Kansas, Boston College over Duke, TCU over Louisiana-Monroe, Florida over Tennessee, Indiana over South Carolina State, North Carolina over Virginia, Texas Tech over New Mexico, Northwestern over Army, Cincinnati over Akron, Virginia Tech over Arkansas State, South Carolina over Navy, Wake Forest over Gardner-Webb, Baylor over Stephen F. Austin, South Florida over Florida A&M, Kentucky over Louisville, Missouri over Western Illinois, Houston over Louisiana Tech, Southern Mississippi over Southeastern Louisiana, Southern Methodist over Northwestern State, Hawaii over UNLV, Fresno State over North Dakota, and Nevada over San Jose State.

Last week: 37-10, season: 98-18, percentage: .845.