Week Five

A WIN OF SORTS … In last week’s Fearless Forecast I noted that our hometown Aggies, coming off a decent win over Univ. of San Diego, might be catching Hawaii at just the right moment, given that the Warriors had been badly thumped by a weak UNLV team the week before. I boldly went where no other forecasters dared to go when I said “Take the Aggies by 4.” This prompted a Jason to tell me he had lost his shirt on my advice and he was wondering “what in the world” I was thinking. I was wondering the same thing myself after Hawaii raced to a 49-0 halftime lead behind quarterback Bryant Moniz’s 424 yards and seven touchdown passes in two quarters of action. Unfortunately, due to an editing error, my original prediction to “Take the Aggies by 4 in the second half” was changed to simply “Take the Aggies by 4.” The rest of it ended up on the cutting room floor. The Aggies did indeed win the second half, 14-7. They simply ran out of time as Hawaii coach Greg McMackin scrambled to stem the tide by putting into the game an assortment of cheerleaders, season ticket holders and friends of University of Hawaii President M.R.C. Greenwood, herself a former Aggie. But Jason, you really shouldn’t be betting your shirt on games like this. Remember, all advice contained herein is for “entertainment purposes” only.

EVEN MORE POSTCARDS FROM HAWAII … Matthew at earthlink.net fired me an email shortly before kickoff, basically agreeing with my assessment that the Aggies were ripe for pulling a major upset in Honolulu. Wrote Matthew: “I just wanted to send you a note before the game started to say that if the Aggies get a couple of bounces their way, they stand a chance of upsetting the University of Hawaii Warriors at Aloha Stadium.” That’s it, a couple of bounces. That’s all they needed to overcome that 49-0 deficit. Added Matthew: “The game is off the board at virtually all of the sports websites. The best I could find was Hawaii favored by 30 points by vegasinsider.com.” Shoulda bet your shirt, Matthew.

OVERTIME SCORING EXPLAINED … Last week my friend Curt – on the second or third try – came up with the correct answer to the trivia question: “What’s the maximum number of points a college football team can win by in overtime?” The correct answer is 14. You get the ball first, score a touchdown and a two-point conversion. Then you either intercept or pick up a fumble and return it for a touchdown when the opposition has its turn with the ball. There is no PAT after the second touchdown. A 14-point win. Actually, I can make a case for just about any margin of victory between 1 and 14 occurring in overtime, except for 11 points. Margins of 1, 2 and 3 are obvious and frequently occur. A margin of four has probably never occurred because consecutive safeties by the same team aren’t possible in the overtime format. The game would end after the first safety. However, one team could score 7 points on its possession, then have that trimmed to four when the other team kicks a field goal. Not likely, but possible. I mean, only Sac State would decide to kick a field to keep the final score respectable when trailing by 7 points in overtime. Other possible overtime margins include 5 (field goal followed by a safety), 6 (touchdown), 7 (touchdown and extra point), 8 (touchdown and two-point conversion or touchdown and safety), 9 (field goal followed by defensive touchdown), 10 (touchdown and two-point conversion, followed by safety), 12 (touchdown followed by defensive touchdown), 13 (touchdown and extra point, followed by defensive touchdown) and 14 (touchdown and two-point conversion, followed by defensive touchdown.) Still can’t solve 11.

SPEAKING OF SNACK STATE … After Sacramento State’s crazy Hornets upset Oregon State in Week 1, I ranked them ninth in the nation. Then they lost by three touchdowns at Southern Utah and by more than that at Weber State, which dropped them into the “Snack State” category because opponents were feasting on them. So what do the Hornets do? They go out and knock off traditional I-AA power Montana for the first time in school history. And they do it convincingly. Which Hornet team will show up in Bozeman for a Big Sky showdown with the talented Bobcats? Stay tuned.

O FOR OREGON … You read it here first. Actually, you read it here several weeks ago. Oregon State, once futile and then mighty, is slip-sliding away. The Beavers are looking straight in the face of the first 0-12 campaign in school history. As the fight song says “I’m a Beaver born and a Beaver bred, and when I die I’ll be a Beaver dead.” After losses to Sac State and UCLA, these Beavers are dead.

CRUMMY GAME OF THE CENTURY … New Mexico State over New Mexico. Things have gotten so bad for the Lobos that they fired coach Mike Locksley after last weekend’s 48-45 loss to I-AA Sam Houston State. Not supposed to happen. Lest you think they fired the third-year coach over the result of one game, Locksley’s final mark with the Lobos, four games into this third season, was 2-26. Those other 25 losses and some off-field embarrassments were major contributors as well. Only 16,000-plus fans showed up for the latest loss, the worst crowd in Albuquerque in the last 19 years. In the big-money world of major college football, that’s the worst offense of all.

HOLD THE PRESSES … Toledo leads Syracuse 27-23 late in the fourth quarter. Syracuse scores a touchdown and kicks the extra point to go ahead 30-27 with 2:07 to play. Toledo ties it with a last-second field goal, but Syracuse prevails in overtime, 33-30. But wait, after Syracuse’s late-game, go-ahead touchdown, the extra point had to be reviewed by the replay booth, which eventually upheld the call on the field that the kick was good. The next day Big East Conference coordinator of officiating Terry McAulay issued the following statement: “After studying videos of the Syracuse extra point attempt at 2:07 of the fourth quarter, we have concluded that the ruling on the field that the kick passed between the uprights was incorrect, and that the replay official made an error in failing to reverse that ruling. In reviewing the video, we have determined that the angle from behind the kicking team shows conclusively that the ball passes outside the right upright.” An independent video review by the Above-Picture Blogger also reveals that the kick very clearly did not pass through the goal posts. Not even a close call. So, Toledo wins, 30-29, right? Wrong. Whatever the score is when the game is declared over remains as the final score, no matter how many errors were made in reaching that score. Toledo is demanding victory. Syracuse could be gracious and say “here, it’s yours, we don’t want to win that way,” but the NCAA probably wouldn’t reverse the result anyway. Besides, you can’t say for sure that had the correct call been made and Syracuse’s lead reduced to just 29-27, that Toledo would have marched down the field to that exact spot and successfully kicked a field goal. Needing only a field goal to win, instead of to tie, might have created a different play-calling scenario. Or, even if the kick had been set up the same, Syracuse’s defensive strategy might have been different. At 30-27, you’d have to leave a couple of guys back to watch for a fake. At 29-27, nobody is going to fake a field goal and you rush all 11, perhaps creating a different result. The solution to all this is to have competent people in the replay booth who will take the time to make sure they got it right. Short of that, do away with replay altogether or go back to playing the game the way God intended. I don’t know how this one could have been reviewed and not reversed. Somehow the whole nation could see what one replay official couldn’t. Toledo will have to put an asterisk next to this one in the school record book with the notation “We was robbed.”

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Wisconsin, 5) Boise State, 6) Oregon, 7) Stanford, 8) Oklahoma State, 9) Florida, 10) Nebraska, 11) Virginia Tech, 12) South Carolina, 13) Clemson, 14) Baylor, 15) Texas A&M, 16) Georgia Tech, 17) TCU, 18) Arkansas, 19) Michigan, 20) Illinois, 21) South Florida, 22) Arizona State, 23) Michigan State, 24) West Virginia, 25) Florida State.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) State of New Mexico (1-7), 119) Oregon State (0-3), 118) UNLV (1-3), 117) Arizona (1-3).

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over UCLA … the road will get considerably tougher for the Cardinal soon enough, so for now they’ll feast on what’s available. UCLA did survive the Futility Bowl against Oregon State, but didn’t bring away much to build on, save for a win.

CLEMSON over VIRGINIA TECH … the best game of the game, bar none.

COLORADO over WASHINGTON STATE … the Buffs picks up their first Pac-12 victory.

USC over ARIZONA … behind Nick Foles, Arizona moved the ball admirably in a lopsided loss to Oregon. If the Wildcats can figure out some defense, USC is ripe for the plucking. Then again, Arizona has been outscored so badly in three straight losses that No. 4 seems almost inevitable.

ARIZONA STATE over OREGON STATE … Dennis Erickson picks up an easy victory over a team he used to coach. Then again, is there a team out there that Dennis Erickson didn’t used to coach?

UTAH over WASHINGTON … my would the Utes like to play USC again.

NOTRE DAME over PURDUE … the Irish are one of the most talented teams in the entire country, but consistently shoot themselves in the foot, turning sure routs into barn-burners.

ALABAMA over FLORIDA … anyone who thinks the SEC isn’t the toughest league in the country, week in and week out, doesn’t understand college football.

WISCONSIN over NEBRASKA … welcome to the Big 10 you wayward Huskers.

GEORGIA TECH over NORTH CAROLINA STATE … watch out for the Ramblin’ Wreck, which is running up and down the field with the greatest of ease.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Mississippi State over Georgia … the Bulldogs win this one, guaranteed. (Upset record: 0-4).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Penn State over Indiana … Joe Pa simply doesn’t have the horses this year, but he doesn’t need any horses to bowl over lowly Indiana. (Rout record: 4-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Baylor over Kansas State … Robert Griffin III is the real deal. 13 touchdown passes so far and just 12 incompletions. He may just lead the Baylor Bears to the promised land after years of futility. (Don’t bet record: 1-3).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s guaranteed victors are Oklahoma (over Ball State), Tennessee (over Buffalo), Michigan (over Minnesota), LSU (over Kentucky) and Boise State (over Nevada). (FEP record: 20-0).

EMBARRASSING GAME OF THE WEEK: Miami (Fla.) over Bethune-Cookman. Remember when the Aggies played Bethune-Cookman in the Division II playoffs years ago? They’ll call this one at halftime.

OTHER GAMES: BYU over Utah State, Texas A&M over Arkansas, Texas Tech over Kansas, Cincinnati over Miami (Ohio), South Carolina over Auburn, TCU over SMU, West Virginia over Bowling Green, Louisville over Marshall, Maryland over Towson, Ohio State over Michigan State, Virginia over Idaho, Texas over Iowa State, Tulsa over North Texas, Southern Mississippi over Rice, Louisiana Tech over Hawaii, San Jose State over Colorado State, and Fresno State over Mississippi.

Last week: 34-9, season: 168-35, percentage: .828. 

Week Four

STOP THE MADNESS … the Univ. of Texas got this conference wrecking ball rolling when it partnered with ESPN to form the Longhorn Network, designed to bring riches to Austin at the expense of its partners in the Big 12. This move didn’t sit well with the league’s other members, especially archrival Texas A&M, which immediately bolted for the best league in college football, the Southeastern Conference. While the move hasn’t been finalized, that leaves the “Big 12” with just nine schools – Colorado having already bolted to the former Pac-10, now Pac-12, and Nebraska joining the Big 10 (which actually has 12 schools). And now we hear that Oklahoma is being wooed by the Pac-12, causing Sooner head coach Bob Stoops to declare that potentially losing the long-standing Red River rivalry against Texas would be “no big deal.” Texas Christian, meanwhile, is already regretting its decision to join the Big East after Pittsburgh and Syracuse declared just this week that they both were bolting for the Atlantic Coast Conference. Now, I don’t know about you, but it doesn’t make a lot of sense for a school from Fort Worth to be playing in the Big East. Then again, how sensible is it for Utah and Colorado to be affiliated with a conference that has always had “Pacific,” as in ocean, in its title? Put simply, Oklahoma has absolutely no business residing in a league that used to be known as the Pacific Coast Conference. I mean, I’m still getting used to the idea of letting Arizona and Arizona State join this hallowed collection of West Coast schools. Left out in all this discussion of potential “super conferences” are folks like you and me, who happen to like the longstanding rivalry games. We’d much rather see Cal play USC, UCLA, Stanford, Oregon and Washington than suddenly see the Golden Bears thrust into the “Southwestern Division” of a 16-team super conference and try to force unnatural rivalries with the likes of Oklahoma State and – who knows? – Baylor. Or Texas Tech. After admitting Nebraska and growing to 12 teams, the Big 10 awkwardly and embarrassingly named its resulting two divisions “Legends” and “Leaders,” and put Michigan and Ohio State in opposite divisions. Which is about as goofy as it gets. Rivalries mean an awful lot to us, the loyal fans, and in many cases they’re what keeps interest in the season alive after your cherished alma mater has started the season 0-3. Ah yes, Oregon State fans might say, we may be winless, but those hated Washington Huskies are coming to town Saturday afternoon, so we’d better get our tickets now.

FANS TURN THUMBS DOWN ON REALIGNMENT … most of us, it seems, don’t like change. And now, thanks to KRC Research, we know that fans in the Big 12 overwhelmingly don’t like change. Especially when it comes to football. In a study commissioned by Baylor University, KRC polled 1,500 college graduates within Big 12 states and reports that 76 percent are opposed to the concept of super conferences. Texas coach Mack Brown, apparently, was one of those polled. Said the longtime Longhorn coach: “As much as we talk about money, as much as we talk about college football, as much as we talk about realignment, as much as we talk about great games, playoffs and all that stuff, we better go back and make sure that we’re taking care of the players and that the players and the high school coaches are always considered in the equation.” Not to mention the fans, coach. Added Brown: “Because if not, we’re not going to have a game, and they’re the ones that are playing. And, for parents to travel all the way across the country is going to put a bigger burden on them. Right now, with the regional leagues, parents can go see their kids play, and that’s really important because these kids are working their guts out year-round for us to have a show on Saturday that everyone enjoys. College football’s as great as it’s ever been, but we better keep considering what’s in the best interest of the players or at some point they’re going to get so frustrated it won’t be fun for them.” Amen.

AND ONE MORE THING … for a minute let’s forget about USC and Alabama and LSU and Florida and Oklahoma and the handful of other schools that know they’ll always be competing for a conference championship, no matter how “super” the conference or how big the league … but when you drop down a rung – or two – to schools where competing for a conference championship comes around only once a generation, or longer, a super conference merely dooms them to perpetual mediocrity. Does anyone seriously think that Cal or Washington State or Oregon State or Arizona or Arizona State or UCLA will ever seriously compete for the championship in a 16-team “Super Pac-12” that includes Texas and Oklahoma and God knows how many other interlopers from halfway across the country? That’s not good for the fans or the players and it’s certainly not good for college football. Mack Brown seems to get that. It’s too bad that more of his coaching counterparts don’t.

HALL OF SHAME … apparently no one was seriously injured in Cal’s 63-12 dismantling of tiny Presbyterian, a weaker-than-your-little-sister FCS school with just 600 male students. Truth be known, the Bears could have scored on every single play against the Blue Hose, who, despite their nickname, actually showed up for the coin toss wearing white sox. It was the 75th win at Cal for Golden Bear head coach Jeff Tedford, making him the all-time winningest coach in Berkeley, but it had to be nothing short of embarrassing for Tedford to have the win come at the expense of such an unworthy foe. Glancing at the far-from-capacity crowd of 33,952 at AT&T Park, Tedford noted “It felt a little dead out there, to be honest with you.” One wonders why. Could it have been the fact that Presbyterian managed just three first downs in the entire game and rolled up a meager 48 yards of total offense, including yardage credited for running from the locker room to the playing field at the start of each half? (PC’s two touchdowns came from one defensive player, Justin Bethel, who ran back an interception for a touchdown and also blocked a punt and took it in for a score.) Now 3-0 and undaunted by its shameless victory, Cal has declared its intention to play an “independent” schedule in 2012 against a full slate of religious schools, including such powers as the Univ. of Mary, Texas Lutheran, Ohio Dominican, Maranatha Baptist, Incarnate Word, St. Anselm, Thomas More, St. Norbert, East Texas Baptist, Kentucky Christian, Presentation, Assumption and St. Scholastica. We’ll see how dead things seem after those games.

TAKE A HORNET TO LUNCH … when perpetually downtrodden I-AA also-ran Sacramento State stunned the college football world with a dramatic 29-28 overtime victory over Oregon State there was talk of the Hornets finally earning a BCS playoff bid and even playing for the national championship. In their excitement, long-suffering Sac State fans, drunk with victory, began snapping up Rose Bowl tickets. Certainly, at least, the elusive Big Sky Conference championship was finally within Sac State’s reach. As they proved in Corvallis, the Hornets were talented, poised and above all, confident. My what a difference two weeks can make. The Hornets followed their win in the Beaver State with a flatter-than-a-pancake 35-14 loss to a so-so Southern Utah team, then opened Big Sky play with a thud, falling to no-name Weber State, 49-17. Stating the obvious, Hornet coach Marshall Sperbeck said, “Obviously, we didn’t play as well as we could have.” You can say that again, coach. “Obviously, we didn’t play as well as we could have,” Sperbeck added. After the win over Oregon State, The Sacramento Bee reported a renewed buzz surrounding Sac State football, which makes sense given that both the hometown newspaper and the hometown college are named after stinging insects that buzz. The Hornet defense, which seemed so “in sync” at Oregon State, gave up a whopping 522 yards to the Weber Wildcats. Opposing offenses have been feasting so mightily on the Hornet defense the last two weeks that they’ve taking to calling the school Snack State.

HEAVEN SENT … those of us who just can’t get enough college football on our televisions were thrilled when Saturday night’s scheduled showdown between Tulsa and Oklahoma State – already scheduled for an unusually late 9:10 p.m. start in Tulsa – was delayed over three hours by a tornado warning. They finally kicked off at 12:16 a.m. Sunday, Tulsa time, and didn’t finish until 3:35 a.m. Lots of folks late for Mass in the Diocese of Tulsa on Sunday morning.

IT’S NOT NICE TO BRAG … despite UC Davis’ 0-2 record and San Diego’s 2-0 mark, the Above-Pictured Blogger wrote “Takes the Ags by 28” when issuing last week’s Fearless Forecast. The final: UC Davis 31, San Diego 3. Too bad this game wasn’t on the board in Boomtown.

FUZZY MATH … ESPN’s math-challenged crew on the BYU-Utah game reminded me that Brigham Young, down by 23 at the time, needed three touchdowns and “at least one two-point conversion” to draw even in the game. Last time I checked, three touchdowns, two PAT kicks and one two-point conversion would result in 22 points. I guess that’s why these guys are in the booth and not on the field.

SPEAKING OF MATH … no winners yet to the difficult question: What’s the maximum number of points a college football team can win by in overtime. My friend Curt gave it a futile stab, but failed. Close, but no cigar. The contest remains open.

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) LSU, 2) Oklahoma, 3) Wisconsin, 4) Stanford, 5) Alabama, 6) Boise State, 7) Oklahoma State, 8) Texas A&M, 9) Florida State, 10) Florida, 11) Oregon, 12) Nebraska, 13) Arkansas, 14) Georgia Tech, 15) Baylor, 16) South Florida, 17) West Virginia, 18) USC, 19) Illinois, 20) TCU, 21) Texas, 22) South Carolina, 23) Virginia Tech, 24) Utah, 25) Clemson.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) North Texas (0-3), 119) Catholic Schools (1-5), 118) Oregon State (0-2), 117) Arizona (1-2), 116) UCLA (1-2).

This week’s picks are as follows:

WASHINGTON over CAL … the Huskies will not be wearing Blue Hose. Washington by 7.

OREGON over ARIZONA … the Wildcats thought this might be the year they finally get over the hump and truly compete for the conference title. They’re learning very quickly that the hump is much larger than anticipated. The Ducks have way too many weapons to falter on the desert. Oregon by 24.

LSU over WEST VIRGINIA … the best defense in college football gets a severe road test and emerges unscathed. The Bayou Bengals are by no means loaded, but there is no more determined team in college football. LSU by 17.

OREGON STATE over UCLA … the loser of this one will not win another game and fans will be calling for the coach’s head. Come to think of it, even the winner of this one is not likely to win another game and fans will be calling for the coach’s head. Two teams caught in a downward spiral and very lucky to be meeting each other this early in the season. I mean, someone has to win, right? Beavers by one-half point.

BOISE STATE over TULSA … the Broncos keep rolling merrily along, hoping against hope that this is the year everyone ahead of them falters and they finally get a chance to play for the national championship. It’s awfully early to make this call, but only TCU (Nov. 12 in Boise) stands between Boise and a perfect regular season. Boise by 20.

ALABAMA over ARKANSAS … one day Alabama’s lack of offense may cost the Tide a victory, but as long as the defense holds up, they’ll score enough to beat the talented Hogs. Bama by 8.

OKLAHOMA STATE over TEXAS A&M … the Cowboys are rocking and rolling with the best team in school history. OSU by 3.

NOTRE DAME over PITTSBURGH … have the Irish finally found the winning formula? Nope, but the schedule is easing up a bit and Notre Dame has a chance to regain its bearings and put together a mild winning streak. Irish by 14.

MISSISSIPPI STATE over LOUISIANA TECH … I absolutely, positively, 100-percent guarantee that the Bulldogs will win this game. MSU by 30.

MICHIGAN over SAN DIEGO STATE … the Brady Bowl, as Wolverine coach Brady Hoke tries to explain to his old team why he’s now coaching his new team. Must be that winters in Ann Arbor are finer than winters in San Diego. Michigan by 12.

PENN STATE over EASTERN MICHIGAN … after routing Temple, 14-10, with late-game heroics, the Nittany Lions continue their march through the weak sisters of Division I. PSU by 22.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: USC over Arizona State … hey, I don’t make the point spreads, I just report them. And oddsmakers all over the country are calling this one for the Sun Devils. They’re wrong. (Upset record: 0-3). Trojans by 14.

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Nebraska over Wyoming … good for the Huskers for making the trip to Laramie – at elevation 7,220, the highest venue in major college football - to play in smallish (29,181-seat) War Memorial Stadium. Most “big-time” programs wouldn’t dream of such a concession. A big, big day for Cowboy fans. (Rout record: 3-0). Huskers by 40.

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Fresno State over Idaho … the Bulldogs came ever so close to losing to North Dakota last week and will have their hands full in the Kibbie Dome. This is not one of Pat Hill’s scarier teams. (Don’t bet record: 0-3). Bulldogs by 5.

FIVE EASY PICKS: Bet the rent on these, Martha. This week’s sure winners are TCU (over Portland State), Wisconsin (over South Dakota), South Florida (over Texas-El Paso), Houston (over Georgia State) and Oklahoma (over Missouri). (FEP record: 15-0).

AGGIES over HAWAII … this game starts so late, ESPN is listing it as a “Sunday, September 25” game. Which it is if your network has an East Coast bias. You know, when I first saw this game on the schedule, I said “no way.” A sure Hawaii win. Then, after I watched Hawaii embarrass Colorado and give Washington a run for its money, I was more certain than ever that the pass-happy Warriors simply had too many weapons for a game, but outmanned, Aggie defense. But late last Saturday night Hawaii barely showed up in Las Vegas’ Sam Boyd Stadium and laid a giant egg against formerly winless UNLV. Suddenly, the Warriors look very, very vulnerable. The Aggies, meanwhile, finally tasted victory after two lopsided road losses. Shades of Stanford in 2005. Take the Ags by 4.

OTHER GAMES: Florida State over Clemson, Georgia Tech over North Carolina, Miami (Fla.) over Kansas State, Michigan State over Central Michigan, SMU over Memphis, Iowa over Louisiana-Monroe, Georgia over Mississippi, Maryland over Temple, Boston College over Massachusetts, Air Force over Tennessee State, Virginia Tech over Marshall, Ohio State over Colorado, Illinois over Western Michigan, Northern Illinois over Cal Poly, Connecticut over Buffalo, South Carolina over Vanderbilt, Florida over Kentucky, Baylor over Rice, Auburn over Florida Atlantic, Minnesota over North Dakota State, Utah State over Colorado State, UNLV over Southern Utah, and Texas Tech over Nevada.

Last week: 40-9, season: 134-26, percentage: .838

Week Three

SAY IT AIN’T SO … for years the world has marveled at the meteoric rise of once-humble Boise State, from Division II through Division I-AA and finally to regular top 10 finishes among the nation’s major colleges. And now we hear the Broncos have been hit with three years probation for “major violations” and “lack of institutional control” in football and four other sports. Boise will lose nine football scholarships over a three-year period, and in the height of silliness, will be allowed to have only nine contact practices – instead of 12 – each spring for the next three years. It will also be required to paint its world-famous blue turf a deep shade of red for extreme embarrassment.

GAMBLERS BEWARE … USC entered last week’s Pac-12 showdown with Utah as an 8 1/2 –point favorite. On the final play of the game, with USC leading 17-14, Utah lined up for a 41-yard field goal to tie the game and send this tense affair into overtime. The kick was blocked, however, by USC left tackle Matt Kalil and the ball bounced directly into the hands of Trojan cornerback Torin Harris, who ran untouched to the end zone for a nine-point USC win. Or even 10 (or 11) if they had decided to attempt the meaningless conversion, which they didn’t. Jubilation not just for USC fans, but for all those who put money on the Trojans to cover that 8 ½-point spread. But wait. After huddling for far too long at midfield, game officials decided to disallow the touchdown because seemingly half the USC bench, plus assorted coaches, were running down the field in celebration as Harris was chugging toward the goal line. Under a new rule for 2011, because flags were thrown before Harris reached the end zone, the touchdown was disallowed and the final score reverted to 17-14. Jubilation for Utah bettors, if not for Utah fans. But wait. Two hours after the game the Pac-12 decided the officials had misinterpreted the new rule and put the touchdown back on the board. Final score: USC 23, Utah 14. Jubilation once again for USC bettors. At least those who hadn’t already shredded their tickets or tossed them on the floor and stomped out of whatever Nevada sportsbook they frequent. Presumably, once the Pac-12 got into the act, there was a mad scramble for all those discarded tickets on the floor of every casino in Nevada. According to the Pac-12, “All unsportsmanlike conduct fouls by substitutes are enforced as dead ball fouls. Since the game was over, the penalty could not be enforced and the referee stated it was declined by rule.” As my eight-year-old would say, “Whatever.” Some Utah bettors were able to cash “winning” tickets before the touchdown was restored, and those USC bettors lucky enough to hold onto their tickets until after the Pac-12 ruling were able to cash in as well. And doesn’t it just kill you when the Las Vegas casinos take a beating?

SHATTERING A GRIDIRON MYTH … for years and years and years, we’ve been told by coaches and commentators alike that “time of possession” is one of the key elements of a football game. The team who “possesses” the ball longer is almost certain to win. Unless, of course, that team is Oregon, with its score-from-anywhere, three-points-a-minute offense. In crushing the once-great and always-proud NevadaWolfpack last Saturday afternoon in Autzen Stadium, the Ducks held the ball for a mere 21 minutes compared to 38 for the Wolfpack. It was 48-7 with the second half barely underway before Oregon head coach Chip-on-his-shoulder Kelly called off the Ducks. Oregon managed to score 69 points in those 21 minutes. Nevada just 20 in its 38 minutes. So much for time of possession.

MORE ON TIME OF POSSESSION … another favorite of commentators is that “the defense has been on the field too long and is really gassed.” Okay, but hasn’t the other guy’s offense been on the field just as long as the opposition’s defense? Shouldn’t the offense be “gassed” as well, especially if it runs down the field as fast as Oregon does?

GREAT READING … not to be missed in the Sept. 12 Sports Illustrated is S.L. Price’s in-depth look at the long coaching history of TCU’s Gary Patterson, formerly an assistant at UC Davis. Turns out Price, a Sacramento Bee sportswriter at the time, and Patterson, were roommates in Davis.

NOTRE SHAME … how can it be that a school with the name “Notre Dame” could lose on a Hail Mary with two seconds left? The Blessed Mother must have had Saturday off. Another sure sign The End is near.

PRE-GAME SNAFU … first, someone poisons Auburn’s famous Toomer’s Oaks, and now we learn that the Auburn War Eagle, a bald eagle by the name of Spirit, crashed into a luxury box at Jordan-Hare Stadium during his regular pre-game ritual flight. Seems the 14-year-old mascot got nervous about Auburn’s date with powerful Mississippi State and simply lost his bearings before returning to his handler on the field. After an overnight stay at the Southeastern Raptor Center, Spirit has been declared fit for action. If it happens again, he may seek a medical hardship year from the NCAA. It’s anyone’s guess why he cracked into the glass of the luxury box, but if you’ve seen some of those Auburn super boosters put away the food, he may just have been looking for something to eat.

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) Oklahoma, 2) Alabama, 3) Boise State, 4) LSU, 5) Wisconsin, 6) Stanford, 7) Oklahoma State, 8) South Carolina, 9) Florida State, 10) Texas A&M, 11) Auburn, 12) Baylor, 13) Arkansas, 14) Florida, 15) Virginia Tech, 16) South Florida, 17) West Virginia, 18) Texas Christian, 19) Arizona State, 20) Oregon, 21) Mississippi State, 22) USC, 23) Michigan, 24) Texas, 25) Washington State.

BOTTOM FEEDERS … 120) Catholic Schools (0-4), 119) Oregon State 0-2, 118) New Mexico (0-2), 117) Indiana (0-2), 116) State of Nevada (0-3).

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over ARIZONA … this may end up being the best game of the weekend. With a late Saturday night start, it’ll easily be the last game of the weekend. A tough early test for the Cardinal, with two of the nation’s best quarterbacks displaying their wares. Fortunately, one of them is wearing Stanford red. Stanford by 13.

OKLAHOMA over FLORIDA STATE … Barry Switzer outsmarts Bobby Bowden. No, wait. I have my generations mixed up. For sure, Gordon MacRae will lead the Sooners to victory. Oklahoma by 7.

OKLAHOMA STATE over TULSA … T. Boone Pickens U. is about to give the Sooners a run for their money in the race for state supremacy. Cowboys by 35.

NEBRASKA over WASHINGTON … for sure, the mascot beginning with the letters “H-U-S-K” will win this game. The Huskies find out in a hurry just how long the road back to respectability really is. Huskers by 17.

WISCONSIN over NORTHERN ILLINOIS … the Badgers are beginning to emerge as the class of the Big 10. Everyone else is an also-ran. Wisconsin by 21.

USC over SYRACUSE … it won’t be pretty, but once again the men of Troy will score just enough points to emerge victorious. USC by 8. But don’t bet on it.

TEXAS over UCLA … the Horns finally showed some promise in an impressive come-from-behind win over BYU last week, while the Bruins struggled mightily with lowly San Jose State. Plus, there’s a little payback involved in this game. Texas by 12.

ARIZONA STATE over ILLINOIS … Dennis Erickson keeps telling anyone who will listen that this Sun Devil team is for real. It better be, or Dennis will be added to those miserable unemployment statistics at the end of the year. ASU by 10.

AUBURN over CLEMSON … hey, they’re the national champions until someone proves otherwise. Tigers by 4.

UTAH over BRIGHAM YOUNG … all kinds of bragging rights on the line in this one. BYU’s offense hasn’t exactly exploded into an orgy of touchdowns as everyone figured it would, and Utah’s defense is more than up for the challenge. Utah by 1.

BOISE STATE over TOLEDO … not the easiest of road games. For a no-name, no-respect opponent, Toledo can be terrifying. Just ask Ohio State. Broncos by 14.

OHIO STATE over MIAMI (Fla.) … two storied programs mired in controversy and penalties. They may ban both teams before this one is over. Buckeyes by 6.

KANSAS STATE over KENT STATE … a sure win for K. State. Guaranteed. Wildcats by 22.

COLORADO over COLORADO STATE … no contest in what used to be a Rocky Mountain shootout. Buffs by 20.

ARKANSAS over TROY … the Real Men of Troy live in Southern California. Hogs by 30.

OREGON STATE ORANGE over OREGON STATE BLACK … the Beavers finally find a game they can win. Unfortunately, it’s an intrasquad game during their bye week.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Washington State over San Diego State … one more win and Paul Wulff can sign a new multi-year contract. They haven’t been this excited in the Palouse since that record wheat harvest in 1952. Wazzu by 4. (Upset record: 0-2)

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Cal over Presbyterian … the Blue Hose roughed up powerful North Greenville last week after losing a squeaker to Wofford the week before, so this may not be the Bakery League cream puff the Bears envisioned. Nevertheless, that record-setting 127-0 Cal win over St. Mary’s in 1920 may be in jeopardy. First Bear fan to yell “Take off those Blue Hose” will be ejected from the stadium. And no messing with the spelling of “Hose,” all you clever Cal students. By the way, the Blue Hose student body consists of just 1,200 hardy souls, only 600 of whom are men. A high percentage of those 600, apparently, play football. Or maybe some of the women play too. The Golden Bears could literally score on every play is they so desired. Jeff Tedford’s pre-game speech will consist of showing his players how to fall down gracefully after a 10-yard gain, even if there is no defender in sight. After all, once the score reaches 80 or 90 to nothing, it ceases to impress the pollsters. It just indicates how terrible the opposition is. Cal by 128. (Rout record: 2-0)

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Michigan State over Notre Dame … not only are the Irish giving away games in the final seconds, now the Catholic press is all over head coach Brian Kelly for his foul-mouthed sideline tirades. The poor guy can’t win. Literally. Spartans by 3. (Don’t bet record: 0-2).

FIVE EASY PICKS … these games are so lopsided it’s embarrassing. The only way these five don’t win is if the opposition refuses to come out of the locker room for the coin toss. This week’s sure winners are Oregon (over Missouri State), Michigan (over Eastern Michigan), Texas A&M (over Idaho), Alabama (over North Texas) and Georgia (over Coastal Carolina). (FEP record: 10-0).

WORST GAME OF THE WEEK: Boston College over Duke … look out, someone may actually score a touchdown in this one. BC by 4.

UC DAVIS AGGIES over SAN DIEGO … in racing to a 2-0 record, the Toreros have outscored the opposition 72-50. In stumbling to an 0-2 record, the Aggies have been outscored by the opposition 86-28. No contest, right? Right. Beating Azusa Pacific and Western New Mexico is hardly the equivalent of going up against Arizona State and Montana State. The Toreros haven’t been the same since Jim Harbaugh headed north. Take the Ags by 28.

OTHER GAMES: Penn State over Temple, Purdue over Southeast Missouri, Mississippi over Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech over Kansas, Boston College over Duke, TCU over Louisiana-Monroe, Florida over Tennessee, Indiana over South Carolina State, North Carolina over Virginia, Texas Tech over New Mexico, Northwestern over Army, Cincinnati over Akron, Virginia Tech over Arkansas State, South Carolina over Navy, Wake Forest over Gardner-Webb, Baylor over Stephen F. Austin, South Florida over Florida A&M, Kentucky over Louisville, Missouri over Western Illinois, Houston over Louisiana Tech, Southern Mississippi over Southeastern Louisiana, Southern Methodist over Northwestern State, Hawaii over UNLV, Fresno State over North Dakota, and Nevada over San Jose State.

Last week: 37-10, season: 98-18, percentage: .845.

Week Two

WEEK TWO

DREAMS DASHED … last week fully half of the teams who took the field had their dreams of a national championship smashed to pieces … more smashing will occur this weekend.

SHORT FUSE … after spring practice and fall camp, you’d think it would have been easy for Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly to pick a starting quarterback he could stick with … well, it took Kelly all of one half of one football game to yank starter Dayne Crist in favor of Tommy Rees … at a place like Notre Dame, had the kid’s last name been “Christ,” he’d still be the starting quarterback.

TRIVIA QUESTION OF THE WEEK: What is the maximum number of points a college football team can win by in overtime?

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) Oklahoma, 2) LSU, 3) Boise State, 4) Alabama, 5) Texas A&M, 6) Stanford, 7) Wisconsin, 8) Oklahoma State, 9) Sacramento State, 10) Nebraska, 11) Virginia Tech, 12) Oregon, 13) South Carolina, 14) Mississippi State, 15) Baylor, 16) Penn State, 17) Florida, 18) South Florida, 19) West Virginia, 20) Arizona State, 21) Brigham Young, 22) Northwestern, 23) Arizona State, 24) USC, 25) California.

THE OTHER END … 120) State of Oregon (0-2), 119) State of New Mexico (0-2), 118) Catholic Schools (0-2), 117) Bulldogs (1-3).

This week’s picks are as follows:

ALABAMA over PENN STATE … the winner gets a leg up in the national title hunt. A rare early-season showdown when other schools tend to fatten their win-loss record. Bama by 20.

MISSISSIPPI STATE over AUBURN … the defending national champions were lucky to beat lowly Utah State last week. They won’t be so lucky this time. Bulldogs by 4.

CAL over COLORADO … no, this is not a Pac-12 game. Or even a Pac-10 game. It was scheduled before Ralphie and the Buffaloes joined the westward expansion in college football. Therefore it does not count in the conference standings. Besides, Colorado has yet to prove it belongs in this conference. Cal, meanwhile, may be the league’s sleeper as it breaks in a talented new quarterback. Bears by 17.

STANFORD over DUKE … it’s being called the Battle of the SATs. Which is a good thing for the Dukies, because if we’re talking football here, the Blue Devils are decidedly on the short end of the stick. Stanford by 40.

OREGON over NEVADA … last week Oregon quarterback Darron Thomas said the season would pretty much be over if Ducks lost to LSU. After the Ducks did, indeed, lose to LSU, Thomas predictably started saying the Ducks still have a lot to play for. But they’d better not overlook always dangerous Nevada, coming off the greatest season and highest ranking in school history. Oregon by 14.

WASHINGTON STATE over UNLV … the Cougars are attempting to open 2-0 for the first time since Tupperware was invented, but with starting quarterback Jeff Tuel on the injured list, this season is nowhere near as bright as it once appeared. Wazzu by 10.

UCLA over SAN JOSE STATE … the Bruins definitely “Know the Way to San Jose” if we’re talking about the Spartan end zone. This one won’t be close. Bruins by 62.

WASHINGTON over HAWAII … homefield advantage to the Huskies, who survived an enormous scare last week from defending FCS champion Eastern Washington. Huskies by 1.

BYU over TEXAS … I keep telling people, the Boys from the Y are for real this year. BYU by 5.

NEBRASKA over FRESNO STATE … maybe it’s time for Pat Hill to rethink that “anyone, anywhere, anytime” philosophy. Huskers by 35.

SOUTH CAROLINA over GEORGIA … bad year for Bulldogs (see Fresno State). Gamecocks by 3.

TCU over AIR FORCE … the Horned Frogs are just too darn good to lose two in a row. Frogs by 10.

ARIZONA STATE over MISSOURI … Dennis Erickson is not messing around this year. The Devils are loaded and ready to rumble. Sun Devils by 14.

OHIO STATE over TOLEDO … the Buckeyes continue their march through everyone in Ohio who plays football. Next up, Moeller. Ohio State by 38.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Utah over USC … until they emerge from under their bowl-less blanket, the Trojans appear relatively unmotivated from week to week. Otherwise, how to explain last week’s squeaker at miserable Minnesota? The Utes are anxious to make a statement that they belong in the Pac-12. No better place to do it than at the Los Angeles Coliseum. Utes by 4. (Upset record: 0-1).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Wisconsin over Oregon State … let me be the first to say the meager Beavers will not win a football game this year. They especially won’t win at Wisconsin, which should be included in the conversation any time the words “national championship” come up.  Badgers by 50. (Rout record: 1-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Notre Dame over Michigan … this used to be one of the biggest games on the college football landscape, but no more. The Irish desperately need a win after high expectations were dashed with last week’s miserable home performance against South Florida. Irish by 7. (Don’t bet record: 0-1).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s money-back-guaranteed winners are Arkansas (over New Mexico), South Florida (over Ball State), LSU (over Northwestern State), West Virginia (over Norfolk State) and Florida State (over Charleston Southern). (FEP record: 5-0).

WORST GAME OF THE WEEK: Minnesota over New Mexico State … the perpetually rebuilding Gophers finally pick on someone their own size. Gophers by 21.

EMBARRASSMENT OF THE WEEK: Houston over North Texas … my goodness gracious, the Cougars will have six touchdowns by halftime. Houston by 47.

UC DAVIS over MONTANA STATE … both teams stepped into the Pac-12 last week and both were overwhelmed by superior foes, but the Bobcats did manage to keep it close at Utah. Too much talent at UC Davis to start 0-2, but this one won’t be easy. Aggies by 6.

OTHER GAMES:  Louisville over Florida International, Michigan State over Florida Atlantic, Iowa over Iowa State, Kentucky over Central Michigan, San Diego State over Army, Pittsburgh over Maine, Colorado State over Northern Colorado, Virginia Tech over East Carolina, Northwestern over Eastern Illinois, North Carolina State over Wake Forest, Clemson over Wofford, Southern Mississippi over Marshall, Tennessee over Cincinnati, Syracuse over Rhode Island, Mississippi over Southern Illinois, Florida over Alabama-Birmingham, Navy over Western Kentucky, Louisiana Tech over Central Arkansas, Illinois over South Dakota State, SMU over UTEP, Utah State over Weber State, and Wyoming over Texas State.

Last week: 61-8, season: 61-8, percentage: .884.