Week Fourteen

NOBODY ASKED ME, BUT … let’s just say I hate conferences that are divided into divisions so they can have a championship game … take the Pac-12, for example, which has only three capable football teams playing the game this fall: Stanford, Oregon and USC … and one of those, USC, is ineligible for any kind of a post-season, including the Pac-12 championship game, due to NCAA penalties … Stanford and Oregon are both in the North Division, and since the Ducks chopped down the Tree in their meeting earlier this month, Oregon will host the championship game this Friday night in Eugene … the South Division, meanwhile, is a mess … going into last weekend’s final regular-season games, three teams – Utah, Arizona State and UCLA – had division title hopes dancing in their silly heads, even if none of them are any good … but, Arizona State lost to Cal on Friday night, Utah lost to woeful Colorado early Saturday afternoon, and by the time Saturday night arrived, only UCLA was left standing … which means the Bruins claimed the South Division crown without even picking up a first down … that, of course, didn’t stop the Bruins from playing their scheduled game in the LA Coliseum against archrival USC … so how did the Bruins celebrate their South Division title and upcoming trip to Eugene? … if you guessed by dropping a 50-0 decision to the hated Trojans, move to the head of the class … the Bruins are now 6-6, and with an expected loss to the Ducks Friday night, will need a special dispensation from the Pope to become bowl eligible … and I ask you, is this any way to crown a league champion? … heck, if you want a real championship game matching teams that actually know how to play the game, how about a Stanford-Oregon rematch? … oh yeah, I forgot, they’re in the same division …

This week’s picks for the final week of the regular season are as follows:

OREGON over UCLA … the first-ever Pac-12 championship game is a bust. Conference officials need to go back to the drawing board to prevent such an embarrassing mismatch from ever happening again. The Ducks are loaded. The Bruins aren’t. This one gives new meaning to the expression “backing into” the championship game. Oregon by 99.

LSU over GEORGIA … at least the SEC championship game has a pair of worthy opponents. The last hurdle for LSU before chasing the national championship come Jan. 9 in New Orleans. Bengals by 20.

WISCONSIN over MICHIGAN STATE … but for a couple of last-second Hail Marys, the Badgers might be playing in New Orleans next month. Badgers by 14.

HOUSTON over SOUTHERN MISS … there are only two unbeatens in the entire country and Houston is one of them, but the Cougars simply can’t earn any respect no matter how many points they score. I will say this, though, if Case Keenum were quarterbacking a “name” team, he’d win the Heisman. He’s that good. Cougars by 4.

VIRGINIA TECH over CLEMSON … the Hokies still think they deserve a spot in the national championship game. They don’t. Hokies by 3.

OKLAHOMA STATE over OKLAHOMA … both of these teams had national championship visions dancing in their heads, but both will fall short. In this one, the Cowboys simply have too much offense. Cowboys by 8.

BAYLOR over TEXAS … the Bears are a team on the rise. Bears by 12.

BRIGHAM YOUNG over HAWAII … speaking of teams on the rise, watch out for the Cougars next year. BYU by 24.

BOISE STATE over NEW MEXIC O … the biggest mismatch of the season. Another close-but-no-cigar season for the Broncos. Boise by 65.

OTHER GAMES: Cincinnati over Connecticut, Kansas State over Iowa State, Wyoming over Colorado State, TCU over UNLV, Utah State over New Mexico State, Nevada over Idaho, and San Diego State over Fresno State.

Last week: 33-4, season: 417-112, percentage: .788.

Week Thirteen

MAD SCRAMBLE NEAR THE TOP … several weeks ago, folks were openly lamenting the great number of unbeaten teams in the country. Well, we’re now down to two: LSU and Houston. While LSU can assure itself of a spot in the BCS championship game simply by winning out, Houston will never get to the title game against a cupcake schedule that includes such lightweights as Rice (73-34), Tulane (73-17), Georgia State (56-0), UTEP, UAB and North Texas, among others. Not a national power among them. Not a single ranked team. Everyone above the Cougars could lose and Houston will still be left out in the cold. Still, it’s an interesting scramble. LSU has an incredibly difficult date with No. 3 Arkansas this weekend, and if it wins that one, an SEC title bout the next weekend against surging Georgia. But what if LSU loses to Arkansas? That would put Arkansas into the picture, for sure, but suppose the Razorbacks turn around and lose the SEC title game to Georgia? The Bulldogs have two losses and are seemingly out of any BCS consideration. Stanford is still hanging around with just one loss, as are Alabama, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech and Boise State. Of those, Alabama seems to have the easiest path to a championship game bid, ironically because it lost to LSU several weeks ago. Because of that loss, Alabama will not be in the SEC title game, meaning all it has to do is beat Auburn this weekend and pretty much wrap up the No. 2 BCS ranking, assuring itself of a spot in the title game. Right now, the SEC West division, made up of just six teams, has the top three ranked teams in the country.

BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES (BCS) STANDINGS … 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Arkansas, 4) Stanford, 5) Oklahoma State, 6) Houston, 7) Virginia Tech, 8) Houston, 9) Boise State, 10) USC, 11) Oregon, 12) Oklahoma, 13) Michigan State, 14) Georgia, 15) Wisconsin, 16) Kansas State, 17) Michigan, 18) TCU, 19) South Carolina, 20) Penn State, 21) Baylor, 22) Clemson, 23) Notre Dame, 24) Virginia, 25) Southern Mississippi.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) Tulane, 119) Memphis, 118) New Mexico, 117) UNLV, 116) Idaho, 115) Arizona State.

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over NOTRE DAME … after pounding everyone in sight the first nine weeks of the season, Stanford had its eyes squarely on the national championship, not to mention a Heisman Trophy for Andrew Luck. Now, however, the Mighty Tree is struggling, first in a lopsided loss to Oregon, then last week in a nail-biter with so-so Cal. A win over a good, but not great, Notre Dame team will almost certainly assure the Cardinal of a BCS bowl bid, and who knows, if everyone ahead of them loses, a national title game. Tree by 10.

LSU over ARKANSAS … you can’t accuse LSU of playing a weak schedule. First, Alabama on the road and now Arkansas at home, plus the SEC championship game next weekend. If the Bengals win out, they’ll rightly claim a spot in the national championship game. Bayou Bengals by 14.

OREGON over OREGON STATE … the Ducks are down after last week’s heartbreaking loss to USC robbed them of an almost-certain bid to the BCS championship game, but they’ll still have enough juice to whip the Beavers. Ducks by 30.

USC over UCLA … the Trojans have emerged from their two-year probation to the point where they are clearly a top 10 team. They almost blew a 24-point lead against Oregon, but they’ll have no trouble in the Battle of Los Angeles. And come next year, look out. USC is back. Trojans by 21.

WASHINGTON over WASHINGTON STATE … the Cougars were locked out of bowl consideration in a heartbreaking overtime loss to Utah last week, but the Huskies will not have an easy time of it in the annual Apple Cup. Huskies by 3.

MICHIGAN over OHIO STATE … remember when this was the biggest game of the year? Wolverines by 8.

UTAH over COLORADO … wow, after struggling in the early season and losing its first four Pac-12 games, the Utes have emerged as a force to be reckoned with. Colorado, meanwhile, is still looking for someone its own size. Utes by 28.

HOUSTON over TULSA … saving the best for last, Houston will have to bring its “A” game to subdue a talented Tulsa squad. For sure, the scoreboard will get a workout when these two tee it up. And no, despite being one of just two unbeaten teams in the country, the Cougars will not be invited to the Big Dance. Blame a weak schedule for the Cougars’ lack of respect. Houston by 17.

GEORGIA over GEORGIA TECH … how bout them Dawgs? Georgia by 11.

PURDUE over INDIANA … the battle for the Old Rotten Bucket as two of the worst teams in the Big 10 do battle in a game one of them has to win. Boilers by 20.

ALABAMA over AUBURN … suddenly, the Crimson Tide seems perfectly set up for a shot at the national title. Auburn may be the defending national champion, but it’s a mere shadow of its former self. Tide by 24.

OKLAHOMA over IOWA STATE … sorry Cyclone fans, lightning doesn’t strike twice. Sooners by 17.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Cal over Arizona State … two programs headed in opposite directions. A loss to the Bears might just seal Dennis Erickson’s fate with the Sun Devils, who are dearly disappointed with this season’s sudden tailspin. Bears by 4. (Upset record: 4-8).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Boise State over Wyoming … another one of those teams still hoping for a BCS bid, the Broncos will have no trouble once the coin flip is completed. Boise by 35. (Rout record: 11-1).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Virginia Tech over Virginia … the Hokies keep hanging around, but there’s virtually no chance they’ll be invited to the BCS championship game. Then again, don’t discount any possibility in this craziest of BCS years. Hokies by 10. (Don’t bet record: 4-8).

FIVE EASY PICKS: There are no easy picks this week. (FEP season record: 57-3).

OTHER GAMES: Northern Illinois over Eastern Michigan, Nebraska over Iowa, Temple over Kent State, Western Michigan over Akron, Toledo over Ball State, Michigan State over Northwestern, Rutgers over Connecticut, North Carolina State over Maryland, Wisconsin over Penn State, Illinois over Minnesota, Missouri over Kansas, North Carolina over Duke, Southern Miss over Memphis, Baylor over Texas Tech, Florida State over Florida, South Carolina over Clemson, San Diego State over UNLV, Mississippi State over Mississippi, Air Force over Colorado State, Hawaii over Tulane, and Nevada over Utah State. 

Last week: 32-12, season: 384-108, percentage: .780.

Week Twelve

BETTER DUCK … those who thought the Oregon Ducks were out of the national championship picture after that uninspired season-opening loss to LSU had better think again … Oregon soared back into the championship conversation with a scintillating 53-30 win over previously unbeaten and seemingly unbeatable Stanford, and made it look easy … all I can say is that’s the fastest flock of Ducks I’ve ever seen … now, if LSU and Oklahoma State win out, the Ducks are nothing more than Duck soup … but if one or the other stumbles, Oregon can sneak into the title game by winning its remaining two games, plus  the Pac-12 championship game … the Ducks, however, must still get past ever-improving and always dangerous USC … LSU still has a difficult date with Arkansas, while Oklahoma State finishes its regular season at home against – you’d better sit down – Oklahoma … so all sorts of things can happen … in fact, if Oklahoma upsets Ok State – some would say that wouldn’t even be an upset –  the Sooners will be making championship game noise as well … unfortunately, Oklahoma inexplicably lost to a truly awful Texas Tech team and even the BCS computer hasn’t forgotten that one …

BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES (BCS) STANDINGS … 1) LSU, 2) Oklahoma State, 3) Oregon, 4) Alabama, 5) Oklahoma, 6) Arkansas, 7) Stanford, 8) Clemson, 9) Virginia Tech, 10) Houston, 11) USC, 12) Georgia, 13) TCU, 14) Boise State, 15) Wisconsin, 16) Michigan State, 17) South Carolina, 18) Kansas State, 19) Nebraska, 20) Michigan, 21) Notre Dame, 22) Southern Miss, 23) Florida State, 24) Baylor, 25) Penn State.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) UNLV (lost to former worst team in America), 119) New Mexico (former worst team in America), 118) Oregon State (lost intrasquad game midweek, 117) Arizona (dropped football at halftime of Colorado game).

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over CAL … after last week’s stunningly lopsided loss to Oregon, Stanford may well be sleepwalking through the first part of this game. But once the Cardinal realizes it’s playing Cal, Katie bar the door. Stanford by 24.

OREGON over USC … a dangerous, dangerous game for the Ducks, who are suddenly back in the national championship conversation. USC is clearly the best team in the country that won’t be playing in a bowl game and is more than capable of upsetting Oregon’s applecart. But not this Saturday. And not in Eugene. Ducks by a dozen.

WASHINGTON over OREGON STATE … the Huskies are learning just how far it is to the top of the conference. The Beavers already know. Huskies by 10.

ALABAMA over GEORGIA SOUTHERN … the Crimson Tide’s national title hopes go up in smoke thanks to a schedule that gets soft at the very moment it needs to toughen up. Playing a I-AA opponent in late November is no way to impress the computers. Bama by 40.

UTAH over WASHINGTON STATE … the up-and-down Cougars can’t put it together two weeks in a row. Utes by 3.

UCLA over COLORADO … at long last, the Bruins get a breather. Maybe. Bruins by 21.

NOTRE DAME over BOSTON COLLEGE … the Irish are rolling. A little late, perhaps, but things look bright for next year. Irish by 35.

OKLAHOMA over BAYLOR … the Sooners continue to nurse their distant national title hopes. Sooners by 14.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Arizona over Arizona State … two teams nearing the end of disappointing seasons. Nick Foles is the difference in this one. Wildcats by 2. (Upset record: 3-8).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Oklahoma State over Iowa State … can anyone beat these Cowboys? Certainly not Iowa State. Cowboys by 45. (Rout record: 11-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Hawaii over Fresno State … talk about disappointing seasons, here are two more who can join the club. Hawaii by 14. (Don’t bet record: 4-7).

FIVE EASY PICKS: Bet the rent on these, Martha. This week’s guaranteed-to-pay winners are BYU (over New Mexico State), Michigan State (over Indiana), Texas A&M (over Kansas), Southern Miss (over UAB) and TCU (over Colorado State). (FEP record: 53-2).

AGGIES over SACRAMENTO STATE … disappointing years? Add two more to the list. This is why they have rivalry games. The winner at least gets to claim Sacramento Valley superiority. Take the Ags by 3.

OTHER GAMES: Toledo over Central Michigan, South Carolina over Citadel, Nebraska over Michigan, Wisconsin over Illinois, Northwestern over Minnesota, Iowa over Purdue, Georgia over Kentucky, Georgia Tech over Duke, Auburn over Samford, Florida over Furman, Arkansas over Mississippi State, Clemson over North Carolina State, Houston over SMU, Ohio State over Penn State, Miami (Fla.) over South Florida, Missouri over Texas Tech, Rice over Tulane, Air Force over UNLV, Boise State over San Diego State, LSU over Ole Miss, Vanderbilt over Tennessee, Florida State over Virginia, Kansas State over Texas, Tulsa over UTEP, Utah State over Idaho, Nevada over Louisiana Tech, and Wyoming over New Mexico.

Last week: 24-11, season: 352-96, season: .786.

  

Week Eleven

GAME OF THE CENTURY (OR WEEK) … wow, two Games of the Century in the same month … first it was LSU 9, Alabama 6, which lived up to all the hype if you like soccer … I mean, wasn’t ever single point in the entire game scored by someone kicking a ball through a goal? … and while most commentators afterward claimed Alabama was clearly the better team, the scoreboard doesn’t lie … plus Alabama was playing at home in front of 101,821 noisy partisans, and tell me that wasn’t tough on LSU trying to call signals … so now we have Game of the Century II – or at least Game of November II – Saturday night in Palo Alto when the Oregon Ducks visit the Farm … with a win, Stanford remains in the national title hunt … the same can’t be said for the Ducks, who lost to LSU in the season opener and are unlikely to earn a rematch with the Bayou Bengals, which is the one team that just about everyone assumes will be in the championship game … a win over Stanford will certainly put Oregon into the conversation, but unless LSU trips along the way, count the Ducks out … then again, give them credit for opening the season against LSU when everyone else was scheduling Cupcake U. from the I-AA ranks … had Oregon done the same, the Ducks would no doubt be ranked second or third in the nation right now and in the thick of the championship race … they could, of course, solve all this unfairness with a simple eight-team playoff, but this way is much more intriguing, don’t you think? …

THE LONG AND BUMPY ROAD TO THE TITLE FOR LSU … none of our potential title contenders has an easy path to the championship game Jan. 9 in New Orleans … LSU’s potential journey seems the most straightforward … simply win out and you’re in … no one else can say that with the same certainty … LSU plays Western Kentucky this weekend in Baton Rouge, then is at 2-7 Mississippi before a land mine game at home against 8-1 and always dangerous Arkansas … the Tigers then must face an extra challenge in the SEC championship game against either Georgia or South Carolina …

OKLAHOMA STATE’S ROUTE … the Cowboys hit the road the next two weeks at Texas Tech and Iowa State and will be heavily favored in both, but let’s not forget that it was Texas Tech that ruined Oklahoma’s perfect season a couple of weeks ago … however, on Dec. 3 Oklahoma comes to Stillwater for what may well be Game of the Century III this fall … the Sooners, who are no strangers to national championships and national championship games, are not happy about the Cowboys stealing their thunder in the Panhandle State … fortunately for Oklahoma State’s hopes, there is no Big 12 title game this year with the defection of Colorado to the Pac-12 and Nebraska to the Big 10 …

STANFORD’S ROUTE … unlike every other team with national title hopes, the Cardinal will have homefield advantage in its final four games … first and foremost, Stanford must beat Oregon this Saturday … it then hosts traditional rival Cal, which is always scary, followed by another trap game against up-and-down but notoriously talented Notre Dame … and then – assuming a win over Oregon – Stanford would host the inaugural Pac-12 title game against either UCLA or Arizona State … the Cardinal routed UCLA, 45-19, on the first Saturday of October, but didn’t have Arizona State on the schedule this year … sadly for the Cardinal, one-loss Alabama is now third in the BCS standings, while Stanford is fourth … if both win out and Oklahoma State loses, we’ll get a rematch of LSU-Alabama for the national championship, with unbeaten Stanford sitting on the sidelines … it will also be the end of the BCS in terms of fan acceptance …

BOISE STATE’S ROUTE … Boise is home this week against 7-2 TCU, which is not exactly a patsy … the Broncos then hit the road for a game at San Diego State, before finishing with two easy games at home against Wyoming and New Mexico, the latter the worst team – by far – in Division I-A football … the bad news for Boise is that strength of schedule is a key factor in the always suspect BCS rankings … so, for example, while Boise is finishing against Wyoming and winless New Mexico, LSU will be finishing against nationally ranked Arkansas and either nationally ranked Georgia or nationally ranked South Carolina, while Oklahoma State will be finishing against nationally ranked Oklahoma … strength of schedule alone is likely to eliminate the Broncos unless everyone ahead of them stumbles badly …

OREGON’S ROUTE … while the Ducks’ chances are remote at best, they are not impossible … then again, it could snow inside the Superdome in New Orleans on Jan. 9 … beating Stanford is a must, followed by a difficult home date with ever improving USC and then a home date against archrival Oregon State … plus a lot of help from their friends …

ALABAMA’S ROUTE … the Crimson Tide essentially played to a tie with the No. 1 team in America, only to put together one of the worst overtime performances in the history of major college football … still, people are talking about a rematch with LSU in the championship game … if that happens, it will simply prove what a complete fraud the BCS truly is … it will say in no uncertain terms that we’ve already decided that two SEC teams should play for the national title and everyone else gets leftovers … and never mind that Stanford is unbeaten against a rugged schedule, we’re going to let one-loss Alabama into the title game and give them a second bite at the LSU apple … simply criminal … regardless, the schedule does not favor Alabama leaping back into contention all by itself … after a date at Mississippi State Saturday, Alabama comes home to meet I-AA Georgia Southern … put simply, when you’re trying to convince the BCS computer about the strength of your schedule, this would not be the time to be dropping down a level in competition … Alabama then closes on the road at archrival Auburn …

AND FINALLY … if everyone else in the country loses all remaining games, the BCS has agreed to let the UC Davis-Sac State game on Nov. 19, matching teams that are both currently 3-6, decide the national championship …

BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES (BCS) STANDINGS … 1) LSU, 2) Stanford, 3) Oklahoma State, 4) Alabama, 5) Oregon, 6) Boise State, 7) Oklahoma, 8) Arkansas, 9) Houston, 10) Clemson, 11) Virginia Tech, 12) Michigan State, 13) Georgia, 14) Penn State, 15) Wisconsin, 16) USC, 17) Cincinnati, 18) Southern Mississippi, 19) South Carolina, 20) Texas, 21) Kansas State, 22) TCU, 23) Auburn, 24) Nebraska, 25) Michigan.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) New Mexico, 119) Colorado.

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over OREGON … after studying hours of film and consulting friends in both Eugene and Palo Alto, the outcome of this one became clear.  Both teams can score, sometimes seemingly at will. It may well be the case that the last team with the ball wins. But if there’s an edge anywhere, it goes to Stanford’s rugged defense. And after watching Andrew Luck stare down adversity against USC, he seems to have that rare ability to will his team to victory. All that, plus the homefield advantage, point to Stanford. I reserve the right to change my mind at halftime. Stanford by 7.

CAL over OREGON STATE … for some reason, the Bears seem to have trouble with the Beavers, especially in Strawberry Canyon. Lucky for Cal fans, this one’s in San Francisco. With a win Cal becomes bowl eligible. They won’t blow it this time. Cal by 21.

USC over WASHINGTON … the Trojans can’t go bowling, but they can certainly try to rain on everyone else’s parade. If Matt Barkley comes back for his senior year, he may just win that Heisman that’s been predicted for him from the moment he stepped on the USC campus. Troy by 10.

BOISE STATE over TCU … at the beginning of the year, this one was penciled in as a major showdown. Unfortunately, the Horned Frogs, under former UC Davis assistant Gary Patterson, haven’t lived up to the high bar they set for themselves in the last several years. Nevertheless, TCU is the last hurdle for Boise on the way to yet another undefeated season and BCS bowl berth. And who knows, the Broncos could still sneak into the national title conversation if everything breaks right down the stretch. Boise by 14.

UCLA over UTAH … the two hottest teams in the conference try to salvage what they can from their disappointing seasons. Bruins by 3.

ARIZONA STATE over WASHINGTON STATE … the Cougars made the mistake of winning early and raising expectations all over the Palouse. Now that reality has settled in, it’s unclear if former Davis High star Paul Wulff will be given another year at the helm. Devils by 20.

NOTRE DAME over MARYLAND … two schools named after Mary square off in what will be a lopsided victory for the Fighting Irish. The winner gets to play William&Mary, and the winner of that one will play the University of Mary. Irish by 28.

ARIZONA over COLORADO … the bumbling Buffs have applied for membership in the Big Sky Conference for 2012. Arizona by 24.

LSU over WESTERN KENTUCKY … this game will be called at halftime. LSU by 120.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Missouri over Texas … the Longhorns are ripe for an upset. Mizzou by 1.  (Upset record: 2-8).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Oklahoma State over Texas Tech … the Cowboys had their scare last week against Kansas State. It won’t be close this time.  Cowboys by 30. (Rout record: 10-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Fresno State over New Mexico State … the Bulldogs finally find an opponent they can beat. Fresno by 27. (Don’t bet record: 4-6).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s certain winners are Alabama (over Mississippi State), Baylor (over Kansas), Brigham Young (over Idaho), Wisconsin (over Minnesota) and Arkansas (over Tennessee). (FEP record: 48-2).

AGGIES over NORTH DAKOTA … the Aggies hit their stride last week with an impressive win over Cal Poly. Take the Ags by 6.

OTHER GAMES: South Carolina over Florida, Nebraska over Penn State, Clemson over Wake Forest, Texas A&M over Kansas State, Michigan over Illinois, Michigan State over Iowa, Georgia over Auburn, Florida State over Miami (Fla.), Ohio State over Purdue, Northwestern over Rice, Tulsa over Marshall, Air Force over Wyoming, Virginia over Duke, Rutgers over Army, Southern Mississippi over Central Florida, UNLV over New Mexico, and Nevada over Hawaii.

Last week: 24-8, season: 328-85, percentage: .794.

  

Week Ten

SHOWDOWN LOOMS … last week a kind reader asked who I was going to pick when Oregon visits Stanford Nov. 12 … I told him it was one of the most intriguing matchups in recent history, but as things stood, I was leaning toward Oregon … by a point … I added that if the game were in Eugene, I’d probably take the Ducks by a touchdown … and while we have a week to go here and anything can happen – an upset, a key injury – I must admit that Stanford’s incredible win over USC on the road Saturday night has me rethinking my original position … that, combined with the fact that Oregon gave up a huge number of yards and 28 points in beating a mediocre Washington State team while Stanford was beating the Trojans in triple overtime … Oregon has been tested only once in the regular season, against LSU in the season opener, and it failed … Stanford’s first big test was against USC, and despite the nail-biting nature of the game, you’d have to say the Cardinal passed that test with flying colors … first off, it was on the road in a truly hostile environment … second, the Cardinal trailed by 10 in the second half and by 7 going into the final three minutes, and again by 7 in overtime … they faced down adversity each time and won the game … both Oregon and Stanford are on the road this weekend before their big showdown … Oregon figures to handle Washington, but the Huskies are certainly a more difficult test than Stanford has at Oregon State … the Beavers have shown improvement from their 0-4 start, but took a huge step backward in a 27-8 loss at Utah last weekend … Stanford should win by six touchdowns, whether or not it’s looking ahead to Nov. 12 … check in next week … I may change my mind again …

COACHING DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE … Washington State played decently at Oregon, but passed up a golden opportunity to make things interesting in Eugene … trailing 29-13, the Cougars scored with 3:52 to go in the third quarter, cutting the lead to 10 … given that Oregon can score very quickly and that time was of the essence, strategy demands that the Cougars attempt a two-point conversion … if successful, they’d be just one score down … by kicking the extra point, the Cougs would be 9 points down and would still need at least two scores while holding Oregon scoreless to win the game … Cougar coach Paul Wulff chose to kick, leaving the Cougars 9 points behind, and the next team the WSU offense touched the ball, Oregon had scored yet another touchdown and the game was essentially over … Oregon State, meanwhile, was trailing 24-0 and playing badly at Utah when it finally found the end zone on the first play of the fourth quarter … suddenly it was 24-6 and Beaver coach Mike Riley sensed a glimmer of hope … he immediately ordered a two-point conversion, which would have drawn the Beavers within two scores … an extra point would have kept the margin at 17, which is three scores any way you slice it … the two-point attempt, failed, but it was the right move … oddly, the Beavers later picked up those two points on a safety, but by then it was much too late to stop the Utes …

BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES (BCS) RANKINGS … for sure, no matter the final score come Saturday night, LSU and Alabama will no longer be ranked 1-2 in the nation … the loser of the current Game of the Century – until Oregon and Stanford meet in next week’s Game of the Century – will most certainly drop two or three spots, maybe more … if it’s a blowout, they could even drop out of the top 10 … the winner will be an automatic No. 1 and need only win out to gain a spot in the national title game Jan. 9 in New Orleans … forget the rumors, there will not be an LSU-Alabama rematch in January … that would be the death of the BCS … at this point, there are only three serious contenders to join either Alabama or LSU in the title game, presuming that the LSU-Alabama winner remains undefeated the rest of the way, which is a big “if” … Oklahoma State may well be the best team in the country … Stanford may well be the best team in the country … Boise State may well be the best team in the country … all are undefeated, but while Stanford and Oklahoma State have land mines ahead, Boise State has clear sailing … believe it or not, that hurts the Broncos, since strength of schedule figures hugely in the BCS rankings, and beating winless New Mexico will not move you up in the polls …

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Stanford, 4) Oklahoma State, 5) Boise State, 6) Oregon, 7) Oklahoma, 8) Nebraska, 9) Arkansas, 10) USC, 11) Virginia Tech, 12) Clemson, 13) Houston, 14) South Carolina, 15) Kansas State, 16) Michigan, 17) Michigan State, 18) Penn State, 19) Wisconsin, 20) Arizona State, 21) Texas, 22) Auburn, 23) Georgia Tech, 24) Georgia, 25) West Virginia.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) New Mexico, 119) New Mexico, 118) New Mexico, 117) etc.

This week’s picks are as follows:

LSU over ALABAMA … both teams are well rested after bye weeks and raring to go. LSU has the better offense, Bama the better defense. A classic matchup with the winner moving into the driver’s seat for a national championship bid and the loser not likely to be invited to the dance. In this one, ultimately, great offense beats great defense. But just barely. LSU by 4.

STANFORD over OREGON STATE … pick a score, any score. Yes, the Cardinal will have a letdown after last week’s heart-pounding, come-from-behind triple overtime win over USC, but the Beavers will be unable to take advantage. Stanford by 56.

OREGON over WASHINGTON … one final tuneup for the flawless Ducks before that incredible showdown at Stanford Stadium come Nov. 12. Ducks by a dozen.

ARIZONA STATE over UCLA … the Bruins’ yo-yo season swings downward once again after a stellar performance against Cal. ASU by 21.

USC over COLORADO (Friday) … if the Trojans show up, this one will be strictly no contest. Will USC be flat? Indeed. But nowhere near as flat as the Bungling Buffs, who are wondering why on earth they wanted to join the Pac-12 in the first place. Trojans by 37.

ARIZONA over UTAH … the Utes won’t be able to score enough points to counteract Nick Foles. Arizona by 7.

OKLAHOMA STATE over KANSAS STATE … the Wildcats go O-for-Oklahoma after falling to the Sooners last week. If the Cowboys finish unbeaten and don’t make the championship game, the whole system will be exposed as a fraud. Cowboys by 24.

NOTRE DAME over WAKE FOREST … the Irish have hit the soft spot on their schedule and should have clear sailing until that date with Stanford Nov. 26. Irish by 30.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Washington State over Cal … the Cougars proved against Oregon last week that they are a vastly improved outfit. The Bears proved against UCLA last week that this is going to be an up-and-down year. Wazzu by 10. (Upset record: 2-7).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Boise State over UNLV … the good news for the Broncos is that they’ll remain undefeated without breaking a sweat. The bad news is that playing the likes of UNLV will make it nearly impossible to move up in the BCS standings, no matter the final score. Broncos by 70. (Rout record: 9-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Fresno State over Louisiana Tech … the 2011 edition of the Bulldogs is nowhere near as fearsome as in previous years. Dawgs by 17. (Don’t bet record: 4-5).

FIVE EASY PICKS: Bet the rent on these, Martha. This week’s money-back guaranteed winners are Ohio State (over Indiana), Georgia (over New Mexico State), TCU (over Wyoming), Wisconsin (over Purdue) and Nebraska (over Northwestern). (FEP record: 44-1).

AGGIES over CAL POLY … there’s no way to sugarcoat it, this UC Davis team is struggling in a way we haven’t seen in decades. Even with a losing season assured, UCD can set the table for a turnaround next season by taking care of business down the stretch, starting with Poly. Take the Ags by 3.

OTHER GAMES: Oklahoma over Texas A&M, Michigan State over Minnesota, Michigan over Iowa, Texas over Texas Tech, West Virginia over Louisville, Florida over Vanderbilt, Iowa State over Kansas, North Carolina over North Carolina State, Miami (Fla.) over Duke, Air Force over Army, Navy over Troy, Tennessee over Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State over Tennessee-Martin, Houston over UAB, and San Diego State over New Mexico.

Last week: 25-11, season: 304-77, percentage: .798.

Week Nine

BCS (BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES) STANDINGS … it doesn’t really matter if it’s LSU or Alabama atop the BCS poll at this point … The two have byes this week and then face off in Tuscaloosa Nov. 5 … may as well just crown the winner of that one as national champion and call off the season after that … my favorite, Wisconsin, found out that prayer works – for Michigan State – when the Spartans beat them with a Hail Mary on the final play of regulation … after further review, it’s a touchdown … what an undramatic way to end a football game … while the LSU-Alabama winner has a clear shot to the title game, the loser will be gone and forgotten … still too many unbeatens for a one-loss team to sneak into the title game, especially if it’s against a team they already lost to in the regular season … there’d be lots of justifiable howling about such a selection … who will the second team be? … well, Oklahoma State can probably get there by winning out … Boise State has a chance to sneak into the title game, but its relatively weak schedule the rest of the way won’t help with the computer ranking, which makes up a third of the poll … Stanford, with games ahead against USC (this Saturday in the Coliseum) and Oregon (Nov. 12 on the Farm), can also make a case for title game inclusion … Clemson might finish unbeaten, but doesn’t seem to be attracting much attention at this point … Kansas State will not finish unbeaten, period, and Houston just might run the table and not even crack the Top 10 …

WELCOME WAGON … not long ago the Pac-12 added Colorado and Utah to the 2011 Pac-12 schedule with much fanfare … please, hold the confetti … those two have yet to figure out how to win even a single game in their new home and both seem to drop further behind the pack every weekend … Colorado trailed 29-0 at the quarter in a 45-2 loss to Oregon, and Utah didn’t show up in a 34-10 loss to Cal … when the Pac-12 expands again to give cannon fodder to the schedules of existing members, it’s looking at Sac State, Idaho, Northern Arizona and the University of Mary …

LOSE TO THE BEAVERS, FIRE THE COACH … two weeks ago, after a 37-27 loss to Oregon State, Arizona fired head coach Mike Stoops … it must have been painful for Stoops to pick up the morning paper after the Wildcats returned to action Stoops-less and responded with a 48-12 win over UCLA … last Saturday Washington State dropped a shocking 44-21 decision to those same Oregon State Beavers, and already the rumor mill says the job of Wazzu head coach Paul Wulff is in jeopardy … pretty soon they’re going to start calling Beaver head coach Mike Riley the Grim Reaper …

TOP OF THE HEAP: 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Stanford, 4) Oklahoma State, 5) Clemson, 6) Boise State, 7) Oregon, 8) Michigan State, 9) Wisconsin, 10) Kansas State, 11) Arkansas, 12) Virginia Tech, 13) Oklahoma, 14) Nebraska, 15) South Carolina, 16) USC, 17) Houston, 18) Texas A&M, 19) Texas Tech, 20) Michigan, 21) Georgia, 22) Texas Tech, 23) Arizona State, 24) Penn State, 25) Stanford Second String

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL: 120) LOSE-CLA (say goodbye, Rick), 119) Pac-12 rookies Colorado and Utah (0-8 in conference), 118) Wazzu (heading backward), 117) New Mexico 0-7 (losing 69-0 to TCU was a moral victory because there is no mercy rule in college football, and besides, the Lobos did manage five first downs).

THIS WEEK’S PICKS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

HOUSTON over RICE (Thursday) … everything goes good over Rice. Cougars by 70.

MIAMI (Fla.) over Virginia (Thursday) … the Hurricanes seems to have overcome those early-season “distractions” and are now playing football. Miami by 12.

CAL over UCLA … the Bears have their swagger back after an overwhelming rout of struggling Utah. Especially impressive was the Cal defense, which is nothing but bad news for the Bruins. Bears by 20.

STANFORD over USC … the Cardinal finally faced a ranked opponent and responded with a 65-point outburst against Washington. Beating USC in the Coliseum is never easy, but then again, Stanford appears ready to meet any challenge thrown its way. Stanford by 3.

WASHINGTON over ARIZONA … the Wildcats are coming off a 36-point Pac-12 win, while the Huskies are coming off a 44-point Pac-12 loss. And yet the Huskies are favored by a touchdown. For good reason. Huskies by 6.

NOTRE DAME over NAVY … when the Irish don’t fumble, they win. When they do fumble, they lose. They won’t fumble against Navy. Irish by 22.

TCU over BYU … an intriguing matchup between an improving BYU outfit and a good but not great bunch of Horned Frogs. The “Y’s” modest win streak comes to a screeching halt. Toads by 10.

OKLAHOMA STATE over BAYLOR … the message for the Cowboys is clear: win out and play for the national championship. The ball is entirely in their court. Cowboys by 27.

OKLAHOMA over KANSAS STATE … the party’s over for the Manhattan Wildcats. Sooners by 17.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Michigan State over Nebraska … the Spartans proved their worth with a dramatic win over one of the best teams in the land, Wisconsin, and will give the Cornhuskers another rude welcome to Big 10 football. Spartans by 2. (Upset record: 2-6).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Interstate 5 to Eugene, where Oregon will absolutely demolish Paul Wulff’s suddenly vulnerable Cougars. A couple of weeks ago they were talking bowl game in Pullman. But after last Saturday’s 44-21 shellacking at the hands of Oregon State, Wulff seems to be back on the coaching hot seat as the schedule turns suddenly more difficult. Ducks by 49. (Rout record: 8-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Utah over Oregon State … the Beavers played nearly flawless football on both sides of the ball in absolutely dismantling Washington State, while Utah still hasn’t proven it belongs in the Pac-12. We’ll find out in a hurry whether Oregon State is on its usual mid-season roll or if Utah is finally able to play in this league. Utes by 11. (Don’t bet record: 3-5).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s red-hot winners are Virginia Tech (over Duke), Air Force (over New Mexico), Army (over Fordham), Arizona State (over Colorado) and Texas (over Kansas). (FEP record: 39-1).

AGGIES over SOUTHERN UTAH … struggling along at an uncharacteristic 2-5, the Aggies finish with four games they can win. These are also four games they can lose. All of them appear to be easy matches. However, Southern Utah is never easy pickings in the thin air of Cedar City. Takes the Ags by 14.

OTHER GAMES: Texas A&M over Missouri, Michigan over Purdue, Florida State over North Carolina State, Northwestern over Indiana, Arkansas over Vanderbilt, Maryland over Boston College, Penn State over Illinois, Georgia over Florida, West Virginia over Rutgers, Iowa over Minnesota, North Carolina over Wake Forest, Texas Tech over Iowa State, Mississippi State over Kentucky, South Carolina over Tennessee, Clemson over Georgia Tech, Wisconsin over Ohio State, San Diego State over Wyoming, Nevada over New Mexico State, Colorado State over UNLV, and Hawaii over Idaho.

Last week: 27-7, season: 279-66, percentage: .809.

Week Eight

BCS (BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES) RANKINGS: Yes, the first BCS poll of the year is out, using equal parts Harris Interactive Poll, USA Today Coaches Poll and computer rankings, the last of which is completely worthless … for example, Oklahoma State is sixth in both the Harris and Coaches polls, but rated first by the computer, which apparently likes big, big scores … Wisconsin, which just might be the best team in America, is fourth in both human polls but an inexplicable 11^th in the computer ranking … Badger coach Brett Bielema plans to have a talk with the computer this week to find out what it doesn’t like about beer and brats and power football … all of this would be just plain silliness if not for the fact that the top two teams to emerge from this mess at the end of the year will get to play for the national championship … Oklahoma, meanwhile – NOT Oklahoma State – is picked first by the coaches and fourth by the computer, which would leave the Sooners out in the cold come Selection Saturday in December … and then we have Kansas State, a Cinderella story to be sure, even if the Wildcats are easily the worst 6-0 team in the country … K-State is 16^th in the Coaches Poll, but No. 7 in the computer ranking, which makes about as much sense as naming a city in the middle of Kansas “Manhattan” … who knows, maybe the computer will take a liking to 0-6 New Mexico one day soon and rank the Lobos number one … makes about as much sense as the current system …

THINNING A BUMPER CROP … well, those 13 unbeatens entering last weekend were trimmed to 10, but that’s still 8 more than will be picked for the BCS championship game January 9 in New Orleans … Alabama and LSU meet Nov. 4 in what is already being billed as the Game of the Century – only 11 seasons in this century so far, so that may be accurate – and Oklahoma and Oklahoma State conclude the regular season against each other on Dec. 3 … Stanford appears to have clear sailing before hosting one-loss Oregon Nov. 12, while it doesn’t appear anyone is going to threaten Wisconsin in any way, shape or form … same for Boise State, which will be favored by at least three touchdowns in every game the rest of the way … yes, including TCU next month … Clemson, Kansas State and Houston don’t figure to be in the discussion even if they win out … fair? … hardly … then again, if you put Houston in the SEC, would you expect the Cougars to even win half of their games? … I rest my case …

THROWING IN THE TOWEL … so, Oregon led Arizona State 41-27 with eight minutes left in Eugene … the Sun Devils faced a makeable fourth-and-2 at their own 38 yard line … with the game hanging in the balance, Arizona State head coach Dennis Erickson was clearly faced with a difficult decision … should he run or should he pass? … turns out he did neither … nope, the man punted … well actually his punter punted, but you get the point … Oregon said “thank you very much,” ran four minutes off the clock before punting back to the Sun Devils and the game was essentially over … final: 41-27 … then again, since Oregon was a 14-and-a-half-point favorite, the Sun Devils did cover the spread, which should make some folks happy back in Tempe …

SPEAKING OF POINT SPREADS … South Carolina, a three-point favorite over Mississippi State, scored late to take a 14-10 lead over the Bulldogs … but then came a

critical decision … faced with a fourth down inside their own 10 yard line, but with only 4 seconds left on the clock, the Gamecocks didn’t want to risk a punt that could be blocked or returned for a touchdown … so they snapped the ball, ran backward into the end zone to use up the four seconds, then stepped neatly out of the end zone to end the game with a safety … final score: 14-12 … yes, that means Mississippi State covered the spread …

CHRIS PETERSEN WATCH … folks in Tucson are actually spreading the rumor that Boise State coach Chris Petersen, who perpetually has his team in the top 5 and is the winningest active coach in America, is a leading candidate to replace the fired Mike Stoops at the Univ. of Arizona … hey, Petersen is not that stupid … he is, after all, a UC Davis graduate … as such, he knows you don’t trade wild success for the humdrum of mediocrity …

TOP OF THE HEAP: 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Wisconsin, 4) Oklahoma, 5) Oklahoma State, 6) Boise State, 7) Stanford, 8) Clemson, 9) Oregon, 10) Virginia Tech, 11) South Carolina, 12) Nebraska, 13) Michigan State, 14) Kansas State, 15) West Virginia, 16) Texas A&M, 17) Houston, 18) Michigan, 19) Penn State, 20) Auburn, 21) Illinois, 22) Georgia, 23) Washington, 24) Notre Dame, 25) Georgia Tech …

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL: 120) New Mexico 0-6, 119-117) Pac-12 bottom feeders Colorado, Arizona, Oregon State 3-16, 116) Florida Atlantic 0-6, 115) Alabama Not Tuscaloosa (Birmingham) 0-6, 114) UNLV 1-5, 113) Idaho 1-6, 112) Boston College 1-5, 111) Indiana 1-6 …

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over WASHINGTON … my goodness, everyone talks about Andrew Luck, but they really should be talking about the Stanford defense. Luck is a star, to be sure, and he may well win the Heisman Trophy, but there are few defenses in the country as dominating as Stanford’s. If the other guys can’t score, they can’t beat you. Stanford, 42-7.

UTAH over CAL … unless the Bears come up with some consistency at quarterback, they won’t be able to solve a stout Utah defense in what should be a low-scoring affair. Utes, 13-10.

OREGON over COLORADO … your Heisman Trophy candidate running back is out with a dislocated elbow, your magical quarterback just left the game with a leg injury and you’re behind in the second half to powerful Arizona State. So you bring on a freshman quarterback and a couple of other talented subs and proceed to take over the game. That’s Oregon. Ducks, 60-0.

LSU over AUBURN … a national-champion-to-be routs last year’s national champion. LSU, 35-17.

ALABAMA over TENNESSEE … pity the poor Volunteers, facing LSU and Alabama on back to back weekends. Who made this schedule? Bama, 44-13.

OKLAHOMA over TEXAS TECH … yet another rout in Norman. Sooners, 56-14.

WISCONSIN over MICHIGAN STATE … if anyone’s going to challenge the Badgers this year, it may be that talented bunch in East Lansing. Badgers, 38-28.

BOISE STATE over AIR FORCE … the Broncos will dominate the skies in this one. New conference, same old story. Boise, 51-16.

KANSAS STATE over KANSAS … this one’s for all the sunflowers. And yes, Dorothy will skydive into the stadium with the game ball and Toto will conduct the coin toss. Wildcats, 31-24.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Oregon State over Washington State … the Beavers may be down and deflated, but they’re not about to lose to the Cougars two years in a row. Beavers, 30-27.  (Upset record: 1-6).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Texas A&M over Iowa State … one last feast on Big 12 fodder before A&M heads off for the daunting SEC treadmill. Aggies, 40-14. (Rout record: 7-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Notre Dame over USC … there was a time when this was annually one of the biggest games in the country. Now it’s just another game as USC waits to get off probation and Notre Dame dreams of future glory based on past success. Irish, 17-14.  (Don’t bet record: 3-4).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s locks are Nebraska (over Minnesota), Arkansas (over Ole Miss), TCU (over New Mexico), Virginia Tech (over Boston College) and Brigham Young (over Idaho State). (FEP record: 34-1).

AGGIES OVER SOUTH DAKOTA … the Coyotes may be wily, but the Aggies have finally found a way to win. Watch out the rest of the way. Take the Ags by 13.

OTHER GAMES: West Virginia over Syracuse, Oklahoma State over Missouri, Clemson over North Carolina, Illinois over Purdue, Kentucky over Jacksonville State, Northern Illinois over Buffalo, Iowa over Indiana, Wake Forest over Duke, Miami (Fla.) over Georgia Tech, Florida State over Maryland, Houston over Marshall, Penn State over Northwestern, Tulsa over Rice, Toledo over Miami (Ohio), Hawaii over New Mexico State, and Nevada over Fresno State.

Last week: 28-6, season: 252-59, percentage: .810.