Week Fourteen

NOBODY ASKED ME, BUT … let’s just say I hate conferences that are divided into divisions so they can have a championship game … take the Pac-12, for example, which has only three capable football teams playing the game this fall: Stanford, Oregon and USC … and one of those, USC, is ineligible for any kind of a post-season, including the Pac-12 championship game, due to NCAA penalties … Stanford and Oregon are both in the North Division, and since the Ducks chopped down the Tree in their meeting earlier this month, Oregon will host the championship game this Friday night in Eugene … the South Division, meanwhile, is a mess … going into last weekend’s final regular-season games, three teams – Utah, Arizona State and UCLA – had division title hopes dancing in their silly heads, even if none of them are any good … but, Arizona State lost to Cal on Friday night, Utah lost to woeful Colorado early Saturday afternoon, and by the time Saturday night arrived, only UCLA was left standing … which means the Bruins claimed the South Division crown without even picking up a first down … that, of course, didn’t stop the Bruins from playing their scheduled game in the LA Coliseum against archrival USC … so how did the Bruins celebrate their South Division title and upcoming trip to Eugene? … if you guessed by dropping a 50-0 decision to the hated Trojans, move to the head of the class … the Bruins are now 6-6, and with an expected loss to the Ducks Friday night, will need a special dispensation from the Pope to become bowl eligible … and I ask you, is this any way to crown a league champion? … heck, if you want a real championship game matching teams that actually know how to play the game, how about a Stanford-Oregon rematch? … oh yeah, I forgot, they’re in the same division …

This week’s picks for the final week of the regular season are as follows:

OREGON over UCLA … the first-ever Pac-12 championship game is a bust. Conference officials need to go back to the drawing board to prevent such an embarrassing mismatch from ever happening again. The Ducks are loaded. The Bruins aren’t. This one gives new meaning to the expression “backing into” the championship game. Oregon by 99.

LSU over GEORGIA … at least the SEC championship game has a pair of worthy opponents. The last hurdle for LSU before chasing the national championship come Jan. 9 in New Orleans. Bengals by 20.

WISCONSIN over MICHIGAN STATE … but for a couple of last-second Hail Marys, the Badgers might be playing in New Orleans next month. Badgers by 14.

HOUSTON over SOUTHERN MISS … there are only two unbeatens in the entire country and Houston is one of them, but the Cougars simply can’t earn any respect no matter how many points they score. I will say this, though, if Case Keenum were quarterbacking a “name” team, he’d win the Heisman. He’s that good. Cougars by 4.

VIRGINIA TECH over CLEMSON … the Hokies still think they deserve a spot in the national championship game. They don’t. Hokies by 3.

OKLAHOMA STATE over OKLAHOMA … both of these teams had national championship visions dancing in their heads, but both will fall short. In this one, the Cowboys simply have too much offense. Cowboys by 8.

BAYLOR over TEXAS … the Bears are a team on the rise. Bears by 12.

BRIGHAM YOUNG over HAWAII … speaking of teams on the rise, watch out for the Cougars next year. BYU by 24.

BOISE STATE over NEW MEXIC O … the biggest mismatch of the season. Another close-but-no-cigar season for the Broncos. Boise by 65.

OTHER GAMES: Cincinnati over Connecticut, Kansas State over Iowa State, Wyoming over Colorado State, TCU over UNLV, Utah State over New Mexico State, Nevada over Idaho, and San Diego State over Fresno State.

Last week: 33-4, season: 417-112, percentage: .788.

Week Thirteen

MAD SCRAMBLE NEAR THE TOP … several weeks ago, folks were openly lamenting the great number of unbeaten teams in the country. Well, we’re now down to two: LSU and Houston. While LSU can assure itself of a spot in the BCS championship game simply by winning out, Houston will never get to the title game against a cupcake schedule that includes such lightweights as Rice (73-34), Tulane (73-17), Georgia State (56-0), UTEP, UAB and North Texas, among others. Not a national power among them. Not a single ranked team. Everyone above the Cougars could lose and Houston will still be left out in the cold. Still, it’s an interesting scramble. LSU has an incredibly difficult date with No. 3 Arkansas this weekend, and if it wins that one, an SEC title bout the next weekend against surging Georgia. But what if LSU loses to Arkansas? That would put Arkansas into the picture, for sure, but suppose the Razorbacks turn around and lose the SEC title game to Georgia? The Bulldogs have two losses and are seemingly out of any BCS consideration. Stanford is still hanging around with just one loss, as are Alabama, Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech and Boise State. Of those, Alabama seems to have the easiest path to a championship game bid, ironically because it lost to LSU several weeks ago. Because of that loss, Alabama will not be in the SEC title game, meaning all it has to do is beat Auburn this weekend and pretty much wrap up the No. 2 BCS ranking, assuring itself of a spot in the title game. Right now, the SEC West division, made up of just six teams, has the top three ranked teams in the country.

BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES (BCS) STANDINGS … 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Arkansas, 4) Stanford, 5) Oklahoma State, 6) Houston, 7) Virginia Tech, 8) Houston, 9) Boise State, 10) USC, 11) Oregon, 12) Oklahoma, 13) Michigan State, 14) Georgia, 15) Wisconsin, 16) Kansas State, 17) Michigan, 18) TCU, 19) South Carolina, 20) Penn State, 21) Baylor, 22) Clemson, 23) Notre Dame, 24) Virginia, 25) Southern Mississippi.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) Tulane, 119) Memphis, 118) New Mexico, 117) UNLV, 116) Idaho, 115) Arizona State.

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over NOTRE DAME … after pounding everyone in sight the first nine weeks of the season, Stanford had its eyes squarely on the national championship, not to mention a Heisman Trophy for Andrew Luck. Now, however, the Mighty Tree is struggling, first in a lopsided loss to Oregon, then last week in a nail-biter with so-so Cal. A win over a good, but not great, Notre Dame team will almost certainly assure the Cardinal of a BCS bowl bid, and who knows, if everyone ahead of them loses, a national title game. Tree by 10.

LSU over ARKANSAS … you can’t accuse LSU of playing a weak schedule. First, Alabama on the road and now Arkansas at home, plus the SEC championship game next weekend. If the Bengals win out, they’ll rightly claim a spot in the national championship game. Bayou Bengals by 14.

OREGON over OREGON STATE … the Ducks are down after last week’s heartbreaking loss to USC robbed them of an almost-certain bid to the BCS championship game, but they’ll still have enough juice to whip the Beavers. Ducks by 30.

USC over UCLA … the Trojans have emerged from their two-year probation to the point where they are clearly a top 10 team. They almost blew a 24-point lead against Oregon, but they’ll have no trouble in the Battle of Los Angeles. And come next year, look out. USC is back. Trojans by 21.

WASHINGTON over WASHINGTON STATE … the Cougars were locked out of bowl consideration in a heartbreaking overtime loss to Utah last week, but the Huskies will not have an easy time of it in the annual Apple Cup. Huskies by 3.

MICHIGAN over OHIO STATE … remember when this was the biggest game of the year? Wolverines by 8.

UTAH over COLORADO … wow, after struggling in the early season and losing its first four Pac-12 games, the Utes have emerged as a force to be reckoned with. Colorado, meanwhile, is still looking for someone its own size. Utes by 28.

HOUSTON over TULSA … saving the best for last, Houston will have to bring its “A” game to subdue a talented Tulsa squad. For sure, the scoreboard will get a workout when these two tee it up. And no, despite being one of just two unbeaten teams in the country, the Cougars will not be invited to the Big Dance. Blame a weak schedule for the Cougars’ lack of respect. Houston by 17.

GEORGIA over GEORGIA TECH … how bout them Dawgs? Georgia by 11.

PURDUE over INDIANA … the battle for the Old Rotten Bucket as two of the worst teams in the Big 10 do battle in a game one of them has to win. Boilers by 20.

ALABAMA over AUBURN … suddenly, the Crimson Tide seems perfectly set up for a shot at the national title. Auburn may be the defending national champion, but it’s a mere shadow of its former self. Tide by 24.

OKLAHOMA over IOWA STATE … sorry Cyclone fans, lightning doesn’t strike twice. Sooners by 17.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Cal over Arizona State … two programs headed in opposite directions. A loss to the Bears might just seal Dennis Erickson’s fate with the Sun Devils, who are dearly disappointed with this season’s sudden tailspin. Bears by 4. (Upset record: 4-8).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Boise State over Wyoming … another one of those teams still hoping for a BCS bid, the Broncos will have no trouble once the coin flip is completed. Boise by 35. (Rout record: 11-1).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Virginia Tech over Virginia … the Hokies keep hanging around, but there’s virtually no chance they’ll be invited to the BCS championship game. Then again, don’t discount any possibility in this craziest of BCS years. Hokies by 10. (Don’t bet record: 4-8).

FIVE EASY PICKS: There are no easy picks this week. (FEP season record: 57-3).

OTHER GAMES: Northern Illinois over Eastern Michigan, Nebraska over Iowa, Temple over Kent State, Western Michigan over Akron, Toledo over Ball State, Michigan State over Northwestern, Rutgers over Connecticut, North Carolina State over Maryland, Wisconsin over Penn State, Illinois over Minnesota, Missouri over Kansas, North Carolina over Duke, Southern Miss over Memphis, Baylor over Texas Tech, Florida State over Florida, South Carolina over Clemson, San Diego State over UNLV, Mississippi State over Mississippi, Air Force over Colorado State, Hawaii over Tulane, and Nevada over Utah State. 

Last week: 32-12, season: 384-108, percentage: .780.

Week Twelve

BETTER DUCK … those who thought the Oregon Ducks were out of the national championship picture after that uninspired season-opening loss to LSU had better think again … Oregon soared back into the championship conversation with a scintillating 53-30 win over previously unbeaten and seemingly unbeatable Stanford, and made it look easy … all I can say is that’s the fastest flock of Ducks I’ve ever seen … now, if LSU and Oklahoma State win out, the Ducks are nothing more than Duck soup … but if one or the other stumbles, Oregon can sneak into the title game by winning its remaining two games, plus  the Pac-12 championship game … the Ducks, however, must still get past ever-improving and always dangerous USC … LSU still has a difficult date with Arkansas, while Oklahoma State finishes its regular season at home against – you’d better sit down – Oklahoma … so all sorts of things can happen … in fact, if Oklahoma upsets Ok State – some would say that wouldn’t even be an upset –  the Sooners will be making championship game noise as well … unfortunately, Oklahoma inexplicably lost to a truly awful Texas Tech team and even the BCS computer hasn’t forgotten that one …

BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES (BCS) STANDINGS … 1) LSU, 2) Oklahoma State, 3) Oregon, 4) Alabama, 5) Oklahoma, 6) Arkansas, 7) Stanford, 8) Clemson, 9) Virginia Tech, 10) Houston, 11) USC, 12) Georgia, 13) TCU, 14) Boise State, 15) Wisconsin, 16) Michigan State, 17) South Carolina, 18) Kansas State, 19) Nebraska, 20) Michigan, 21) Notre Dame, 22) Southern Miss, 23) Florida State, 24) Baylor, 25) Penn State.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) UNLV (lost to former worst team in America), 119) New Mexico (former worst team in America), 118) Oregon State (lost intrasquad game midweek, 117) Arizona (dropped football at halftime of Colorado game).

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over CAL … after last week’s stunningly lopsided loss to Oregon, Stanford may well be sleepwalking through the first part of this game. But once the Cardinal realizes it’s playing Cal, Katie bar the door. Stanford by 24.

OREGON over USC … a dangerous, dangerous game for the Ducks, who are suddenly back in the national championship conversation. USC is clearly the best team in the country that won’t be playing in a bowl game and is more than capable of upsetting Oregon’s applecart. But not this Saturday. And not in Eugene. Ducks by a dozen.

WASHINGTON over OREGON STATE … the Huskies are learning just how far it is to the top of the conference. The Beavers already know. Huskies by 10.

ALABAMA over GEORGIA SOUTHERN … the Crimson Tide’s national title hopes go up in smoke thanks to a schedule that gets soft at the very moment it needs to toughen up. Playing a I-AA opponent in late November is no way to impress the computers. Bama by 40.

UTAH over WASHINGTON STATE … the up-and-down Cougars can’t put it together two weeks in a row. Utes by 3.

UCLA over COLORADO … at long last, the Bruins get a breather. Maybe. Bruins by 21.

NOTRE DAME over BOSTON COLLEGE … the Irish are rolling. A little late, perhaps, but things look bright for next year. Irish by 35.

OKLAHOMA over BAYLOR … the Sooners continue to nurse their distant national title hopes. Sooners by 14.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Arizona over Arizona State … two teams nearing the end of disappointing seasons. Nick Foles is the difference in this one. Wildcats by 2. (Upset record: 3-8).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Oklahoma State over Iowa State … can anyone beat these Cowboys? Certainly not Iowa State. Cowboys by 45. (Rout record: 11-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Hawaii over Fresno State … talk about disappointing seasons, here are two more who can join the club. Hawaii by 14. (Don’t bet record: 4-7).

FIVE EASY PICKS: Bet the rent on these, Martha. This week’s guaranteed-to-pay winners are BYU (over New Mexico State), Michigan State (over Indiana), Texas A&M (over Kansas), Southern Miss (over UAB) and TCU (over Colorado State). (FEP record: 53-2).

AGGIES over SACRAMENTO STATE … disappointing years? Add two more to the list. This is why they have rivalry games. The winner at least gets to claim Sacramento Valley superiority. Take the Ags by 3.

OTHER GAMES: Toledo over Central Michigan, South Carolina over Citadel, Nebraska over Michigan, Wisconsin over Illinois, Northwestern over Minnesota, Iowa over Purdue, Georgia over Kentucky, Georgia Tech over Duke, Auburn over Samford, Florida over Furman, Arkansas over Mississippi State, Clemson over North Carolina State, Houston over SMU, Ohio State over Penn State, Miami (Fla.) over South Florida, Missouri over Texas Tech, Rice over Tulane, Air Force over UNLV, Boise State over San Diego State, LSU over Ole Miss, Vanderbilt over Tennessee, Florida State over Virginia, Kansas State over Texas, Tulsa over UTEP, Utah State over Idaho, Nevada over Louisiana Tech, and Wyoming over New Mexico.

Last week: 24-11, season: 352-96, season: .786.

  

Week Eleven

GAME OF THE CENTURY (OR WEEK) … wow, two Games of the Century in the same month … first it was LSU 9, Alabama 6, which lived up to all the hype if you like soccer … I mean, wasn’t ever single point in the entire game scored by someone kicking a ball through a goal? … and while most commentators afterward claimed Alabama was clearly the better team, the scoreboard doesn’t lie … plus Alabama was playing at home in front of 101,821 noisy partisans, and tell me that wasn’t tough on LSU trying to call signals … so now we have Game of the Century II – or at least Game of November II – Saturday night in Palo Alto when the Oregon Ducks visit the Farm … with a win, Stanford remains in the national title hunt … the same can’t be said for the Ducks, who lost to LSU in the season opener and are unlikely to earn a rematch with the Bayou Bengals, which is the one team that just about everyone assumes will be in the championship game … a win over Stanford will certainly put Oregon into the conversation, but unless LSU trips along the way, count the Ducks out … then again, give them credit for opening the season against LSU when everyone else was scheduling Cupcake U. from the I-AA ranks … had Oregon done the same, the Ducks would no doubt be ranked second or third in the nation right now and in the thick of the championship race … they could, of course, solve all this unfairness with a simple eight-team playoff, but this way is much more intriguing, don’t you think? …

THE LONG AND BUMPY ROAD TO THE TITLE FOR LSU … none of our potential title contenders has an easy path to the championship game Jan. 9 in New Orleans … LSU’s potential journey seems the most straightforward … simply win out and you’re in … no one else can say that with the same certainty … LSU plays Western Kentucky this weekend in Baton Rouge, then is at 2-7 Mississippi before a land mine game at home against 8-1 and always dangerous Arkansas … the Tigers then must face an extra challenge in the SEC championship game against either Georgia or South Carolina …

OKLAHOMA STATE’S ROUTE … the Cowboys hit the road the next two weeks at Texas Tech and Iowa State and will be heavily favored in both, but let’s not forget that it was Texas Tech that ruined Oklahoma’s perfect season a couple of weeks ago … however, on Dec. 3 Oklahoma comes to Stillwater for what may well be Game of the Century III this fall … the Sooners, who are no strangers to national championships and national championship games, are not happy about the Cowboys stealing their thunder in the Panhandle State … fortunately for Oklahoma State’s hopes, there is no Big 12 title game this year with the defection of Colorado to the Pac-12 and Nebraska to the Big 10 …

STANFORD’S ROUTE … unlike every other team with national title hopes, the Cardinal will have homefield advantage in its final four games … first and foremost, Stanford must beat Oregon this Saturday … it then hosts traditional rival Cal, which is always scary, followed by another trap game against up-and-down but notoriously talented Notre Dame … and then – assuming a win over Oregon – Stanford would host the inaugural Pac-12 title game against either UCLA or Arizona State … the Cardinal routed UCLA, 45-19, on the first Saturday of October, but didn’t have Arizona State on the schedule this year … sadly for the Cardinal, one-loss Alabama is now third in the BCS standings, while Stanford is fourth … if both win out and Oklahoma State loses, we’ll get a rematch of LSU-Alabama for the national championship, with unbeaten Stanford sitting on the sidelines … it will also be the end of the BCS in terms of fan acceptance …

BOISE STATE’S ROUTE … Boise is home this week against 7-2 TCU, which is not exactly a patsy … the Broncos then hit the road for a game at San Diego State, before finishing with two easy games at home against Wyoming and New Mexico, the latter the worst team – by far – in Division I-A football … the bad news for Boise is that strength of schedule is a key factor in the always suspect BCS rankings … so, for example, while Boise is finishing against Wyoming and winless New Mexico, LSU will be finishing against nationally ranked Arkansas and either nationally ranked Georgia or nationally ranked South Carolina, while Oklahoma State will be finishing against nationally ranked Oklahoma … strength of schedule alone is likely to eliminate the Broncos unless everyone ahead of them stumbles badly …

OREGON’S ROUTE … while the Ducks’ chances are remote at best, they are not impossible … then again, it could snow inside the Superdome in New Orleans on Jan. 9 … beating Stanford is a must, followed by a difficult home date with ever improving USC and then a home date against archrival Oregon State … plus a lot of help from their friends …

ALABAMA’S ROUTE … the Crimson Tide essentially played to a tie with the No. 1 team in America, only to put together one of the worst overtime performances in the history of major college football … still, people are talking about a rematch with LSU in the championship game … if that happens, it will simply prove what a complete fraud the BCS truly is … it will say in no uncertain terms that we’ve already decided that two SEC teams should play for the national title and everyone else gets leftovers … and never mind that Stanford is unbeaten against a rugged schedule, we’re going to let one-loss Alabama into the title game and give them a second bite at the LSU apple … simply criminal … regardless, the schedule does not favor Alabama leaping back into contention all by itself … after a date at Mississippi State Saturday, Alabama comes home to meet I-AA Georgia Southern … put simply, when you’re trying to convince the BCS computer about the strength of your schedule, this would not be the time to be dropping down a level in competition … Alabama then closes on the road at archrival Auburn …

AND FINALLY … if everyone else in the country loses all remaining games, the BCS has agreed to let the UC Davis-Sac State game on Nov. 19, matching teams that are both currently 3-6, decide the national championship …

BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES (BCS) STANDINGS … 1) LSU, 2) Stanford, 3) Oklahoma State, 4) Alabama, 5) Oregon, 6) Boise State, 7) Oklahoma, 8) Arkansas, 9) Houston, 10) Clemson, 11) Virginia Tech, 12) Michigan State, 13) Georgia, 14) Penn State, 15) Wisconsin, 16) USC, 17) Cincinnati, 18) Southern Mississippi, 19) South Carolina, 20) Texas, 21) Kansas State, 22) TCU, 23) Auburn, 24) Nebraska, 25) Michigan.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) New Mexico, 119) Colorado.

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over OREGON … after studying hours of film and consulting friends in both Eugene and Palo Alto, the outcome of this one became clear.  Both teams can score, sometimes seemingly at will. It may well be the case that the last team with the ball wins. But if there’s an edge anywhere, it goes to Stanford’s rugged defense. And after watching Andrew Luck stare down adversity against USC, he seems to have that rare ability to will his team to victory. All that, plus the homefield advantage, point to Stanford. I reserve the right to change my mind at halftime. Stanford by 7.

CAL over OREGON STATE … for some reason, the Bears seem to have trouble with the Beavers, especially in Strawberry Canyon. Lucky for Cal fans, this one’s in San Francisco. With a win Cal becomes bowl eligible. They won’t blow it this time. Cal by 21.

USC over WASHINGTON … the Trojans can’t go bowling, but they can certainly try to rain on everyone else’s parade. If Matt Barkley comes back for his senior year, he may just win that Heisman that’s been predicted for him from the moment he stepped on the USC campus. Troy by 10.

BOISE STATE over TCU … at the beginning of the year, this one was penciled in as a major showdown. Unfortunately, the Horned Frogs, under former UC Davis assistant Gary Patterson, haven’t lived up to the high bar they set for themselves in the last several years. Nevertheless, TCU is the last hurdle for Boise on the way to yet another undefeated season and BCS bowl berth. And who knows, the Broncos could still sneak into the national title conversation if everything breaks right down the stretch. Boise by 14.

UCLA over UTAH … the two hottest teams in the conference try to salvage what they can from their disappointing seasons. Bruins by 3.

ARIZONA STATE over WASHINGTON STATE … the Cougars made the mistake of winning early and raising expectations all over the Palouse. Now that reality has settled in, it’s unclear if former Davis High star Paul Wulff will be given another year at the helm. Devils by 20.

NOTRE DAME over MARYLAND … two schools named after Mary square off in what will be a lopsided victory for the Fighting Irish. The winner gets to play William&Mary, and the winner of that one will play the University of Mary. Irish by 28.

ARIZONA over COLORADO … the bumbling Buffs have applied for membership in the Big Sky Conference for 2012. Arizona by 24.

LSU over WESTERN KENTUCKY … this game will be called at halftime. LSU by 120.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Missouri over Texas … the Longhorns are ripe for an upset. Mizzou by 1.  (Upset record: 2-8).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Oklahoma State over Texas Tech … the Cowboys had their scare last week against Kansas State. It won’t be close this time.  Cowboys by 30. (Rout record: 10-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Fresno State over New Mexico State … the Bulldogs finally find an opponent they can beat. Fresno by 27. (Don’t bet record: 4-6).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s certain winners are Alabama (over Mississippi State), Baylor (over Kansas), Brigham Young (over Idaho), Wisconsin (over Minnesota) and Arkansas (over Tennessee). (FEP record: 48-2).

AGGIES over NORTH DAKOTA … the Aggies hit their stride last week with an impressive win over Cal Poly. Take the Ags by 6.

OTHER GAMES: South Carolina over Florida, Nebraska over Penn State, Clemson over Wake Forest, Texas A&M over Kansas State, Michigan over Illinois, Michigan State over Iowa, Georgia over Auburn, Florida State over Miami (Fla.), Ohio State over Purdue, Northwestern over Rice, Tulsa over Marshall, Air Force over Wyoming, Virginia over Duke, Rutgers over Army, Southern Mississippi over Central Florida, UNLV over New Mexico, and Nevada over Hawaii.

Last week: 24-8, season: 328-85, percentage: .794.