Week Eleven

GAME OF THE CENTURY (OR WEEK) … wow, two Games of the Century in the same month … first it was LSU 9, Alabama 6, which lived up to all the hype if you like soccer … I mean, wasn’t ever single point in the entire game scored by someone kicking a ball through a goal? … and while most commentators afterward claimed Alabama was clearly the better team, the scoreboard doesn’t lie … plus Alabama was playing at home in front of 101,821 noisy partisans, and tell me that wasn’t tough on LSU trying to call signals … so now we have Game of the Century II – or at least Game of November II – Saturday night in Palo Alto when the Oregon Ducks visit the Farm … with a win, Stanford remains in the national title hunt … the same can’t be said for the Ducks, who lost to LSU in the season opener and are unlikely to earn a rematch with the Bayou Bengals, which is the one team that just about everyone assumes will be in the championship game … a win over Stanford will certainly put Oregon into the conversation, but unless LSU trips along the way, count the Ducks out … then again, give them credit for opening the season against LSU when everyone else was scheduling Cupcake U. from the I-AA ranks … had Oregon done the same, the Ducks would no doubt be ranked second or third in the nation right now and in the thick of the championship race … they could, of course, solve all this unfairness with a simple eight-team playoff, but this way is much more intriguing, don’t you think? …

THE LONG AND BUMPY ROAD TO THE TITLE FOR LSU … none of our potential title contenders has an easy path to the championship game Jan. 9 in New Orleans … LSU’s potential journey seems the most straightforward … simply win out and you’re in … no one else can say that with the same certainty … LSU plays Western Kentucky this weekend in Baton Rouge, then is at 2-7 Mississippi before a land mine game at home against 8-1 and always dangerous Arkansas … the Tigers then must face an extra challenge in the SEC championship game against either Georgia or South Carolina …

OKLAHOMA STATE’S ROUTE … the Cowboys hit the road the next two weeks at Texas Tech and Iowa State and will be heavily favored in both, but let’s not forget that it was Texas Tech that ruined Oklahoma’s perfect season a couple of weeks ago … however, on Dec. 3 Oklahoma comes to Stillwater for what may well be Game of the Century III this fall … the Sooners, who are no strangers to national championships and national championship games, are not happy about the Cowboys stealing their thunder in the Panhandle State … fortunately for Oklahoma State’s hopes, there is no Big 12 title game this year with the defection of Colorado to the Pac-12 and Nebraska to the Big 10 …

STANFORD’S ROUTE … unlike every other team with national title hopes, the Cardinal will have homefield advantage in its final four games … first and foremost, Stanford must beat Oregon this Saturday … it then hosts traditional rival Cal, which is always scary, followed by another trap game against up-and-down but notoriously talented Notre Dame … and then – assuming a win over Oregon – Stanford would host the inaugural Pac-12 title game against either UCLA or Arizona State … the Cardinal routed UCLA, 45-19, on the first Saturday of October, but didn’t have Arizona State on the schedule this year … sadly for the Cardinal, one-loss Alabama is now third in the BCS standings, while Stanford is fourth … if both win out and Oklahoma State loses, we’ll get a rematch of LSU-Alabama for the national championship, with unbeaten Stanford sitting on the sidelines … it will also be the end of the BCS in terms of fan acceptance …

BOISE STATE’S ROUTE … Boise is home this week against 7-2 TCU, which is not exactly a patsy … the Broncos then hit the road for a game at San Diego State, before finishing with two easy games at home against Wyoming and New Mexico, the latter the worst team – by far – in Division I-A football … the bad news for Boise is that strength of schedule is a key factor in the always suspect BCS rankings … so, for example, while Boise is finishing against Wyoming and winless New Mexico, LSU will be finishing against nationally ranked Arkansas and either nationally ranked Georgia or nationally ranked South Carolina, while Oklahoma State will be finishing against nationally ranked Oklahoma … strength of schedule alone is likely to eliminate the Broncos unless everyone ahead of them stumbles badly …

OREGON’S ROUTE … while the Ducks’ chances are remote at best, they are not impossible … then again, it could snow inside the Superdome in New Orleans on Jan. 9 … beating Stanford is a must, followed by a difficult home date with ever improving USC and then a home date against archrival Oregon State … plus a lot of help from their friends …

ALABAMA’S ROUTE … the Crimson Tide essentially played to a tie with the No. 1 team in America, only to put together one of the worst overtime performances in the history of major college football … still, people are talking about a rematch with LSU in the championship game … if that happens, it will simply prove what a complete fraud the BCS truly is … it will say in no uncertain terms that we’ve already decided that two SEC teams should play for the national title and everyone else gets leftovers … and never mind that Stanford is unbeaten against a rugged schedule, we’re going to let one-loss Alabama into the title game and give them a second bite at the LSU apple … simply criminal … regardless, the schedule does not favor Alabama leaping back into contention all by itself … after a date at Mississippi State Saturday, Alabama comes home to meet I-AA Georgia Southern … put simply, when you’re trying to convince the BCS computer about the strength of your schedule, this would not be the time to be dropping down a level in competition … Alabama then closes on the road at archrival Auburn …

AND FINALLY … if everyone else in the country loses all remaining games, the BCS has agreed to let the UC Davis-Sac State game on Nov. 19, matching teams that are both currently 3-6, decide the national championship …

BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES (BCS) STANDINGS … 1) LSU, 2) Stanford, 3) Oklahoma State, 4) Alabama, 5) Oregon, 6) Boise State, 7) Oklahoma, 8) Arkansas, 9) Houston, 10) Clemson, 11) Virginia Tech, 12) Michigan State, 13) Georgia, 14) Penn State, 15) Wisconsin, 16) USC, 17) Cincinnati, 18) Southern Mississippi, 19) South Carolina, 20) Texas, 21) Kansas State, 22) TCU, 23) Auburn, 24) Nebraska, 25) Michigan.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) New Mexico, 119) Colorado.

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over OREGON … after studying hours of film and consulting friends in both Eugene and Palo Alto, the outcome of this one became clear.  Both teams can score, sometimes seemingly at will. It may well be the case that the last team with the ball wins. But if there’s an edge anywhere, it goes to Stanford’s rugged defense. And after watching Andrew Luck stare down adversity against USC, he seems to have that rare ability to will his team to victory. All that, plus the homefield advantage, point to Stanford. I reserve the right to change my mind at halftime. Stanford by 7.

CAL over OREGON STATE … for some reason, the Bears seem to have trouble with the Beavers, especially in Strawberry Canyon. Lucky for Cal fans, this one’s in San Francisco. With a win Cal becomes bowl eligible. They won’t blow it this time. Cal by 21.

USC over WASHINGTON … the Trojans can’t go bowling, but they can certainly try to rain on everyone else’s parade. If Matt Barkley comes back for his senior year, he may just win that Heisman that’s been predicted for him from the moment he stepped on the USC campus. Troy by 10.

BOISE STATE over TCU … at the beginning of the year, this one was penciled in as a major showdown. Unfortunately, the Horned Frogs, under former UC Davis assistant Gary Patterson, haven’t lived up to the high bar they set for themselves in the last several years. Nevertheless, TCU is the last hurdle for Boise on the way to yet another undefeated season and BCS bowl berth. And who knows, the Broncos could still sneak into the national title conversation if everything breaks right down the stretch. Boise by 14.

UCLA over UTAH … the two hottest teams in the conference try to salvage what they can from their disappointing seasons. Bruins by 3.

ARIZONA STATE over WASHINGTON STATE … the Cougars made the mistake of winning early and raising expectations all over the Palouse. Now that reality has settled in, it’s unclear if former Davis High star Paul Wulff will be given another year at the helm. Devils by 20.

NOTRE DAME over MARYLAND … two schools named after Mary square off in what will be a lopsided victory for the Fighting Irish. The winner gets to play William&Mary, and the winner of that one will play the University of Mary. Irish by 28.

ARIZONA over COLORADO … the bumbling Buffs have applied for membership in the Big Sky Conference for 2012. Arizona by 24.

LSU over WESTERN KENTUCKY … this game will be called at halftime. LSU by 120.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Missouri over Texas … the Longhorns are ripe for an upset. Mizzou by 1.  (Upset record: 2-8).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Oklahoma State over Texas Tech … the Cowboys had their scare last week against Kansas State. It won’t be close this time.  Cowboys by 30. (Rout record: 10-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Fresno State over New Mexico State … the Bulldogs finally find an opponent they can beat. Fresno by 27. (Don’t bet record: 4-6).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s certain winners are Alabama (over Mississippi State), Baylor (over Kansas), Brigham Young (over Idaho), Wisconsin (over Minnesota) and Arkansas (over Tennessee). (FEP record: 48-2).

AGGIES over NORTH DAKOTA … the Aggies hit their stride last week with an impressive win over Cal Poly. Take the Ags by 6.

OTHER GAMES: South Carolina over Florida, Nebraska over Penn State, Clemson over Wake Forest, Texas A&M over Kansas State, Michigan over Illinois, Michigan State over Iowa, Georgia over Auburn, Florida State over Miami (Fla.), Ohio State over Purdue, Northwestern over Rice, Tulsa over Marshall, Air Force over Wyoming, Virginia over Duke, Rutgers over Army, Southern Mississippi over Central Florida, UNLV over New Mexico, and Nevada over Hawaii.

Last week: 24-8, season: 328-85, percentage: .794.