Week Ten

SHOWDOWN LOOMS … last week a kind reader asked who I was going to pick when Oregon visits Stanford Nov. 12 … I told him it was one of the most intriguing matchups in recent history, but as things stood, I was leaning toward Oregon … by a point … I added that if the game were in Eugene, I’d probably take the Ducks by a touchdown … and while we have a week to go here and anything can happen – an upset, a key injury – I must admit that Stanford’s incredible win over USC on the road Saturday night has me rethinking my original position … that, combined with the fact that Oregon gave up a huge number of yards and 28 points in beating a mediocre Washington State team while Stanford was beating the Trojans in triple overtime … Oregon has been tested only once in the regular season, against LSU in the season opener, and it failed … Stanford’s first big test was against USC, and despite the nail-biting nature of the game, you’d have to say the Cardinal passed that test with flying colors … first off, it was on the road in a truly hostile environment … second, the Cardinal trailed by 10 in the second half and by 7 going into the final three minutes, and again by 7 in overtime … they faced down adversity each time and won the game … both Oregon and Stanford are on the road this weekend before their big showdown … Oregon figures to handle Washington, but the Huskies are certainly a more difficult test than Stanford has at Oregon State … the Beavers have shown improvement from their 0-4 start, but took a huge step backward in a 27-8 loss at Utah last weekend … Stanford should win by six touchdowns, whether or not it’s looking ahead to Nov. 12 … check in next week … I may change my mind again …

COACHING DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE … Washington State played decently at Oregon, but passed up a golden opportunity to make things interesting in Eugene … trailing 29-13, the Cougars scored with 3:52 to go in the third quarter, cutting the lead to 10 … given that Oregon can score very quickly and that time was of the essence, strategy demands that the Cougars attempt a two-point conversion … if successful, they’d be just one score down … by kicking the extra point, the Cougs would be 9 points down and would still need at least two scores while holding Oregon scoreless to win the game … Cougar coach Paul Wulff chose to kick, leaving the Cougars 9 points behind, and the next team the WSU offense touched the ball, Oregon had scored yet another touchdown and the game was essentially over … Oregon State, meanwhile, was trailing 24-0 and playing badly at Utah when it finally found the end zone on the first play of the fourth quarter … suddenly it was 24-6 and Beaver coach Mike Riley sensed a glimmer of hope … he immediately ordered a two-point conversion, which would have drawn the Beavers within two scores … an extra point would have kept the margin at 17, which is three scores any way you slice it … the two-point attempt, failed, but it was the right move … oddly, the Beavers later picked up those two points on a safety, but by then it was much too late to stop the Utes …

BOB CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES (BCS) RANKINGS … for sure, no matter the final score come Saturday night, LSU and Alabama will no longer be ranked 1-2 in the nation … the loser of the current Game of the Century – until Oregon and Stanford meet in next week’s Game of the Century – will most certainly drop two or three spots, maybe more … if it’s a blowout, they could even drop out of the top 10 … the winner will be an automatic No. 1 and need only win out to gain a spot in the national title game Jan. 9 in New Orleans … forget the rumors, there will not be an LSU-Alabama rematch in January … that would be the death of the BCS … at this point, there are only three serious contenders to join either Alabama or LSU in the title game, presuming that the LSU-Alabama winner remains undefeated the rest of the way, which is a big “if” … Oklahoma State may well be the best team in the country … Stanford may well be the best team in the country … Boise State may well be the best team in the country … all are undefeated, but while Stanford and Oklahoma State have land mines ahead, Boise State has clear sailing … believe it or not, that hurts the Broncos, since strength of schedule figures hugely in the BCS rankings, and beating winless New Mexico will not move you up in the polls …

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Stanford, 4) Oklahoma State, 5) Boise State, 6) Oregon, 7) Oklahoma, 8) Nebraska, 9) Arkansas, 10) USC, 11) Virginia Tech, 12) Clemson, 13) Houston, 14) South Carolina, 15) Kansas State, 16) Michigan, 17) Michigan State, 18) Penn State, 19) Wisconsin, 20) Arizona State, 21) Texas, 22) Auburn, 23) Georgia Tech, 24) Georgia, 25) West Virginia.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) New Mexico, 119) New Mexico, 118) New Mexico, 117) etc.

This week’s picks are as follows:

LSU over ALABAMA … both teams are well rested after bye weeks and raring to go. LSU has the better offense, Bama the better defense. A classic matchup with the winner moving into the driver’s seat for a national championship bid and the loser not likely to be invited to the dance. In this one, ultimately, great offense beats great defense. But just barely. LSU by 4.

STANFORD over OREGON STATE … pick a score, any score. Yes, the Cardinal will have a letdown after last week’s heart-pounding, come-from-behind triple overtime win over USC, but the Beavers will be unable to take advantage. Stanford by 56.

OREGON over WASHINGTON … one final tuneup for the flawless Ducks before that incredible showdown at Stanford Stadium come Nov. 12. Ducks by a dozen.

ARIZONA STATE over UCLA … the Bruins’ yo-yo season swings downward once again after a stellar performance against Cal. ASU by 21.

USC over COLORADO (Friday) … if the Trojans show up, this one will be strictly no contest. Will USC be flat? Indeed. But nowhere near as flat as the Bungling Buffs, who are wondering why on earth they wanted to join the Pac-12 in the first place. Trojans by 37.

ARIZONA over UTAH … the Utes won’t be able to score enough points to counteract Nick Foles. Arizona by 7.

OKLAHOMA STATE over KANSAS STATE … the Wildcats go O-for-Oklahoma after falling to the Sooners last week. If the Cowboys finish unbeaten and don’t make the championship game, the whole system will be exposed as a fraud. Cowboys by 24.

NOTRE DAME over WAKE FOREST … the Irish have hit the soft spot on their schedule and should have clear sailing until that date with Stanford Nov. 26. Irish by 30.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Washington State over Cal … the Cougars proved against Oregon last week that they are a vastly improved outfit. The Bears proved against UCLA last week that this is going to be an up-and-down year. Wazzu by 10. (Upset record: 2-7).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Boise State over UNLV … the good news for the Broncos is that they’ll remain undefeated without breaking a sweat. The bad news is that playing the likes of UNLV will make it nearly impossible to move up in the BCS standings, no matter the final score. Broncos by 70. (Rout record: 9-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Fresno State over Louisiana Tech … the 2011 edition of the Bulldogs is nowhere near as fearsome as in previous years. Dawgs by 17. (Don’t bet record: 4-5).

FIVE EASY PICKS: Bet the rent on these, Martha. This week’s money-back guaranteed winners are Ohio State (over Indiana), Georgia (over New Mexico State), TCU (over Wyoming), Wisconsin (over Purdue) and Nebraska (over Northwestern). (FEP record: 44-1).

AGGIES over CAL POLY … there’s no way to sugarcoat it, this UC Davis team is struggling in a way we haven’t seen in decades. Even with a losing season assured, UCD can set the table for a turnaround next season by taking care of business down the stretch, starting with Poly. Take the Ags by 3.

OTHER GAMES: Oklahoma over Texas A&M, Michigan State over Minnesota, Michigan over Iowa, Texas over Texas Tech, West Virginia over Louisville, Florida over Vanderbilt, Iowa State over Kansas, North Carolina over North Carolina State, Miami (Fla.) over Duke, Air Force over Army, Navy over Troy, Tennessee over Middle Tennessee, Mississippi State over Tennessee-Martin, Houston over UAB, and San Diego State over New Mexico.

Last week: 25-11, season: 304-77, percentage: .798.