Week Five

A WIN OF SORTS … In last week’s Fearless Forecast I noted that our hometown Aggies, coming off a decent win over Univ. of San Diego, might be catching Hawaii at just the right moment, given that the Warriors had been badly thumped by a weak UNLV team the week before. I boldly went where no other forecasters dared to go when I said “Take the Aggies by 4.” This prompted a Jason to tell me he had lost his shirt on my advice and he was wondering “what in the world” I was thinking. I was wondering the same thing myself after Hawaii raced to a 49-0 halftime lead behind quarterback Bryant Moniz’s 424 yards and seven touchdown passes in two quarters of action. Unfortunately, due to an editing error, my original prediction to “Take the Aggies by 4 in the second half” was changed to simply “Take the Aggies by 4.” The rest of it ended up on the cutting room floor. The Aggies did indeed win the second half, 14-7. They simply ran out of time as Hawaii coach Greg McMackin scrambled to stem the tide by putting into the game an assortment of cheerleaders, season ticket holders and friends of University of Hawaii President M.R.C. Greenwood, herself a former Aggie. But Jason, you really shouldn’t be betting your shirt on games like this. Remember, all advice contained herein is for “entertainment purposes” only.

EVEN MORE POSTCARDS FROM HAWAII … Matthew at earthlink.net fired me an email shortly before kickoff, basically agreeing with my assessment that the Aggies were ripe for pulling a major upset in Honolulu. Wrote Matthew: “I just wanted to send you a note before the game started to say that if the Aggies get a couple of bounces their way, they stand a chance of upsetting the University of Hawaii Warriors at Aloha Stadium.” That’s it, a couple of bounces. That’s all they needed to overcome that 49-0 deficit. Added Matthew: “The game is off the board at virtually all of the sports websites. The best I could find was Hawaii favored by 30 points by vegasinsider.com.” Shoulda bet your shirt, Matthew.

OVERTIME SCORING EXPLAINED … Last week my friend Curt – on the second or third try – came up with the correct answer to the trivia question: “What’s the maximum number of points a college football team can win by in overtime?” The correct answer is 14. You get the ball first, score a touchdown and a two-point conversion. Then you either intercept or pick up a fumble and return it for a touchdown when the opposition has its turn with the ball. There is no PAT after the second touchdown. A 14-point win. Actually, I can make a case for just about any margin of victory between 1 and 14 occurring in overtime, except for 11 points. Margins of 1, 2 and 3 are obvious and frequently occur. A margin of four has probably never occurred because consecutive safeties by the same team aren’t possible in the overtime format. The game would end after the first safety. However, one team could score 7 points on its possession, then have that trimmed to four when the other team kicks a field goal. Not likely, but possible. I mean, only Sac State would decide to kick a field to keep the final score respectable when trailing by 7 points in overtime. Other possible overtime margins include 5 (field goal followed by a safety), 6 (touchdown), 7 (touchdown and extra point), 8 (touchdown and two-point conversion or touchdown and safety), 9 (field goal followed by defensive touchdown), 10 (touchdown and two-point conversion, followed by safety), 12 (touchdown followed by defensive touchdown), 13 (touchdown and extra point, followed by defensive touchdown) and 14 (touchdown and two-point conversion, followed by defensive touchdown.) Still can’t solve 11.

SPEAKING OF SNACK STATE … After Sacramento State’s crazy Hornets upset Oregon State in Week 1, I ranked them ninth in the nation. Then they lost by three touchdowns at Southern Utah and by more than that at Weber State, which dropped them into the “Snack State” category because opponents were feasting on them. So what do the Hornets do? They go out and knock off traditional I-AA power Montana for the first time in school history. And they do it convincingly. Which Hornet team will show up in Bozeman for a Big Sky showdown with the talented Bobcats? Stay tuned.

O FOR OREGON … You read it here first. Actually, you read it here several weeks ago. Oregon State, once futile and then mighty, is slip-sliding away. The Beavers are looking straight in the face of the first 0-12 campaign in school history. As the fight song says “I’m a Beaver born and a Beaver bred, and when I die I’ll be a Beaver dead.” After losses to Sac State and UCLA, these Beavers are dead.

CRUMMY GAME OF THE CENTURY … New Mexico State over New Mexico. Things have gotten so bad for the Lobos that they fired coach Mike Locksley after last weekend’s 48-45 loss to I-AA Sam Houston State. Not supposed to happen. Lest you think they fired the third-year coach over the result of one game, Locksley’s final mark with the Lobos, four games into this third season, was 2-26. Those other 25 losses and some off-field embarrassments were major contributors as well. Only 16,000-plus fans showed up for the latest loss, the worst crowd in Albuquerque in the last 19 years. In the big-money world of major college football, that’s the worst offense of all.

HOLD THE PRESSES … Toledo leads Syracuse 27-23 late in the fourth quarter. Syracuse scores a touchdown and kicks the extra point to go ahead 30-27 with 2:07 to play. Toledo ties it with a last-second field goal, but Syracuse prevails in overtime, 33-30. But wait, after Syracuse’s late-game, go-ahead touchdown, the extra point had to be reviewed by the replay booth, which eventually upheld the call on the field that the kick was good. The next day Big East Conference coordinator of officiating Terry McAulay issued the following statement: “After studying videos of the Syracuse extra point attempt at 2:07 of the fourth quarter, we have concluded that the ruling on the field that the kick passed between the uprights was incorrect, and that the replay official made an error in failing to reverse that ruling. In reviewing the video, we have determined that the angle from behind the kicking team shows conclusively that the ball passes outside the right upright.” An independent video review by the Above-Picture Blogger also reveals that the kick very clearly did not pass through the goal posts. Not even a close call. So, Toledo wins, 30-29, right? Wrong. Whatever the score is when the game is declared over remains as the final score, no matter how many errors were made in reaching that score. Toledo is demanding victory. Syracuse could be gracious and say “here, it’s yours, we don’t want to win that way,” but the NCAA probably wouldn’t reverse the result anyway. Besides, you can’t say for sure that had the correct call been made and Syracuse’s lead reduced to just 29-27, that Toledo would have marched down the field to that exact spot and successfully kicked a field goal. Needing only a field goal to win, instead of to tie, might have created a different play-calling scenario. Or, even if the kick had been set up the same, Syracuse’s defensive strategy might have been different. At 30-27, you’d have to leave a couple of guys back to watch for a fake. At 29-27, nobody is going to fake a field goal and you rush all 11, perhaps creating a different result. The solution to all this is to have competent people in the replay booth who will take the time to make sure they got it right. Short of that, do away with replay altogether or go back to playing the game the way God intended. I don’t know how this one could have been reviewed and not reversed. Somehow the whole nation could see what one replay official couldn’t. Toledo will have to put an asterisk next to this one in the school record book with the notation “We was robbed.”

TOP OF THE HEAP … 1) LSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Oklahoma, 4) Wisconsin, 5) Boise State, 6) Oregon, 7) Stanford, 8) Oklahoma State, 9) Florida, 10) Nebraska, 11) Virginia Tech, 12) South Carolina, 13) Clemson, 14) Baylor, 15) Texas A&M, 16) Georgia Tech, 17) TCU, 18) Arkansas, 19) Michigan, 20) Illinois, 21) South Florida, 22) Arizona State, 23) Michigan State, 24) West Virginia, 25) Florida State.

BOTTOM OF THE BARREL … 120) State of New Mexico (1-7), 119) Oregon State (0-3), 118) UNLV (1-3), 117) Arizona (1-3).

This week’s picks are as follows:

STANFORD over UCLA … the road will get considerably tougher for the Cardinal soon enough, so for now they’ll feast on what’s available. UCLA did survive the Futility Bowl against Oregon State, but didn’t bring away much to build on, save for a win.

CLEMSON over VIRGINIA TECH … the best game of the game, bar none.

COLORADO over WASHINGTON STATE … the Buffs picks up their first Pac-12 victory.

USC over ARIZONA … behind Nick Foles, Arizona moved the ball admirably in a lopsided loss to Oregon. If the Wildcats can figure out some defense, USC is ripe for the plucking. Then again, Arizona has been outscored so badly in three straight losses that No. 4 seems almost inevitable.

ARIZONA STATE over OREGON STATE … Dennis Erickson picks up an easy victory over a team he used to coach. Then again, is there a team out there that Dennis Erickson didn’t used to coach?

UTAH over WASHINGTON … my would the Utes like to play USC again.

NOTRE DAME over PURDUE … the Irish are one of the most talented teams in the entire country, but consistently shoot themselves in the foot, turning sure routs into barn-burners.

ALABAMA over FLORIDA … anyone who thinks the SEC isn’t the toughest league in the country, week in and week out, doesn’t understand college football.

WISCONSIN over NEBRASKA … welcome to the Big 10 you wayward Huskers.

GEORGIA TECH over NORTH CAROLINA STATE … watch out for the Ramblin’ Wreck, which is running up and down the field with the greatest of ease.

UPSET OF THE WEEK: Mississippi State over Georgia … the Bulldogs win this one, guaranteed. (Upset record: 0-4).

ROUT OF THE WEEK: Penn State over Indiana … Joe Pa simply doesn’t have the horses this year, but he doesn’t need any horses to bowl over lowly Indiana. (Rout record: 4-0).

DON’T BET ON IT, BUT: Baylor over Kansas State … Robert Griffin III is the real deal. 13 touchdown passes so far and just 12 incompletions. He may just lead the Baylor Bears to the promised land after years of futility. (Don’t bet record: 1-3).

FIVE EASY PICKS: This week’s guaranteed victors are Oklahoma (over Ball State), Tennessee (over Buffalo), Michigan (over Minnesota), LSU (over Kentucky) and Boise State (over Nevada). (FEP record: 20-0).

EMBARRASSING GAME OF THE WEEK: Miami (Fla.) over Bethune-Cookman. Remember when the Aggies played Bethune-Cookman in the Division II playoffs years ago? They’ll call this one at halftime.

OTHER GAMES: BYU over Utah State, Texas A&M over Arkansas, Texas Tech over Kansas, Cincinnati over Miami (Ohio), South Carolina over Auburn, TCU over SMU, West Virginia over Bowling Green, Louisville over Marshall, Maryland over Towson, Ohio State over Michigan State, Virginia over Idaho, Texas over Iowa State, Tulsa over North Texas, Southern Mississippi over Rice, Louisiana Tech over Hawaii, San Jose State over Colorado State, and Fresno State over Mississippi.

Last week: 34-9, season: 168-35, percentage: .828.